Complicated one today guys. I'm basically showing waves (intermediate - purple), within waves (primary - red), within waves (cycle - blue).
According to my count we are forming cycle wave 4. Cycle wave 4 is a corrective wave, and could end where cycle wave 3 ended its primary impulse wave 4 ... see the red 4 around Sep 15, 2017 ... around 3k. Some people are counting the primary waves of cycle wave 3 differently and end up at 1k and 2k ... but I looked at Renko and it looks more probable the way I have shown in. Let's assume for now this wave 4 COULD go down to 3k (not WILL go down to 3k).
Cycle wave 4 should be an ABC correction, and I believe we found point A at 6k, worked up to point B at 11.7k, and now bouncing to complete a triangle wave and will go down eventually to find point C. There are a few versions of the triangle wave ... so don't get caught up in what I'm showing.
Here's what we need to pay attention to, in my opinion ... BTC is clearly in a correction wave coming down from the 10k top. This correction wave is an ABC. We went from 10k to 7.9k in wave A, up to 8.6k in wave B, and now completing wave C ... and it's probably going to be long and painful. It has started off slow, but as we chew through key support ... liquidations will likely set off, and it'll start dropping faster. Here's what we know ... wave C itself should be an impulse wave down. It seems that we completed wave 1 ... and it was nasty ... taking us from 8.6k to 7.2k (1400 points, one wave only)! we should have a wave 2 going to around the 7.8k mark ... but perhaps it topped out at 7.6k ... and now we are in wave 3. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest ... and unless wave 5 is going to be one really short wave ... I doubt this will stop at the triangle bottom which is around 6900 (only 300 points away!). Wave 3 can easily be as long as wave 1 ... another 1400 points from 7.6k ... so does that mean we do a double bottom test of 6k?? Then wave 4 up ... then we still have to deal with wave 5 ... 5.4k? 5k? 4.5k?
My point is ... the TA tells me this drop is far from over ... the TA also says even 3k BTC is possible, maybe not in one shot, but after a bounce or two. The TA also tells me once this bottom is formed, we will likely start cycle wave 5, an impulse up and we probably don't want to miss it, as it should take us above the previous 20k all time high.
Key levels to watch for a bounce ... are:
- 7190 ... key fibo, recently reached ... no bounce yet ... unlikely.
- 6900 ... bottom of triangle ... EW theory says unlikely.
- 6425 ... one of the previous lows ... EW theory says low probability
- 6000 ... low of 2018 ... reasonable probability
- 5400 ... key support ... reasonable probability
- 5000 ... key support ... reasonable probability ... but may require a bounce up before then, and back down.
- 4400 ... key support ... lower probability ... will likely require a bounce up before then, and back down.
- 4000 ... key support ... lower probability ... high probability will have a bounce up before then, and back down.
- 3400 ... key support ... low probability ... almost certainly it will have a bounce up before then, and back down. Possibly two bounces.
- 3000 ... wave 4 of cycle wave 3 bottom ... low probability ... almost certainly it will have a bounce up before then, and back down. Possibly two bounces.
Down to 5000 could happen over 1 to 2 weeks, with an average drop of 200 points per day, well within the range of previous drops.
Below 5k will likely take months and will likely have some recoveries in between (bounces up).
I know ... depressing ... but these are all possible. Some are saying even $1k or $2k BTC ... because they figure the wave 4 of cycle wave 3 ended at those points (different interpretations). I don't think that low. The good news is we start a nice impulse wave up after that!
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this info for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
According to my count we are forming cycle wave 4. Cycle wave 4 is a corrective wave, and could end where cycle wave 3 ended its primary impulse wave 4 ... see the red 4 around Sep 15, 2017 ... around 3k. Some people are counting the primary waves of cycle wave 3 differently and end up at 1k and 2k ... but I looked at Renko and it looks more probable the way I have shown in. Let's assume for now this wave 4 COULD go down to 3k (not WILL go down to 3k).
Cycle wave 4 should be an ABC correction, and I believe we found point A at 6k, worked up to point B at 11.7k, and now bouncing to complete a triangle wave and will go down eventually to find point C. There are a few versions of the triangle wave ... so don't get caught up in what I'm showing.
Here's what we need to pay attention to, in my opinion ... BTC is clearly in a correction wave coming down from the 10k top. This correction wave is an ABC. We went from 10k to 7.9k in wave A, up to 8.6k in wave B, and now completing wave C ... and it's probably going to be long and painful. It has started off slow, but as we chew through key support ... liquidations will likely set off, and it'll start dropping faster. Here's what we know ... wave C itself should be an impulse wave down. It seems that we completed wave 1 ... and it was nasty ... taking us from 8.6k to 7.2k (1400 points, one wave only)! we should have a wave 2 going to around the 7.8k mark ... but perhaps it topped out at 7.6k ... and now we are in wave 3. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest ... and unless wave 5 is going to be one really short wave ... I doubt this will stop at the triangle bottom which is around 6900 (only 300 points away!). Wave 3 can easily be as long as wave 1 ... another 1400 points from 7.6k ... so does that mean we do a double bottom test of 6k?? Then wave 4 up ... then we still have to deal with wave 5 ... 5.4k? 5k? 4.5k?
My point is ... the TA tells me this drop is far from over ... the TA also says even 3k BTC is possible, maybe not in one shot, but after a bounce or two. The TA also tells me once this bottom is formed, we will likely start cycle wave 5, an impulse up and we probably don't want to miss it, as it should take us above the previous 20k all time high.
Key levels to watch for a bounce ... are:
- 7190 ... key fibo, recently reached ... no bounce yet ... unlikely.
- 6900 ... bottom of triangle ... EW theory says unlikely.
- 6425 ... one of the previous lows ... EW theory says low probability
- 6000 ... low of 2018 ... reasonable probability
- 5400 ... key support ... reasonable probability
- 5000 ... key support ... reasonable probability ... but may require a bounce up before then, and back down.
- 4400 ... key support ... lower probability ... will likely require a bounce up before then, and back down.
- 4000 ... key support ... lower probability ... high probability will have a bounce up before then, and back down.
- 3400 ... key support ... low probability ... almost certainly it will have a bounce up before then, and back down. Possibly two bounces.
- 3000 ... wave 4 of cycle wave 3 bottom ... low probability ... almost certainly it will have a bounce up before then, and back down. Possibly two bounces.
Down to 5000 could happen over 1 to 2 weeks, with an average drop of 200 points per day, well within the range of previous drops.
Below 5k will likely take months and will likely have some recoveries in between (bounces up).
I know ... depressing ... but these are all possible. Some are saying even $1k or $2k BTC ... because they figure the wave 4 of cycle wave 3 ended at those points (different interpretations). I don't think that low. The good news is we start a nice impulse wave up after that!
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this info for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.