Peymana71
Long

BTC Realtime Analyse #5

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello my friends,
It's another Sunday and we reach to number 5,Really happy to was with you here in last months,honestly i traded more accurate and profitable after start here as an Analyst.You always made me happy with your comments and messages.i had many messages that they said entered with me in trade and made profit with me,even in this boring market.All these made me fresh and helped me to work better.
So let's look our BTC chart for this week.
As you remember we had 2 short term bullish wedge in btc that both worked perfectly last day.Now it seems we found a bottom for BTC even temporary.Last day bounce reached BTC just under over downward channel from 10k.We have huge resistance here but we are still in a bull flag and hold this area.
As you see in my main chart i have 3 possible scenario for this week.Why 3?It's against my structure for make an analyse but believe me we are in a important area and just an idiot analyse this situation with one possibility.We are under an important resistance that push BTC down for several time and after that we have more important one that will show us Downward channel will end or not.
I have a super bullish possibility that draw with black arrow.in this scenario we break this channel and next resistance without any retrace and we bounce right from this bull flag .I said in my last BTC Realtime that i don't think this scenario have a lot chance to win,because BTC know locate in bad situation with lot uncertainly and doubt in market and we need to hold support below and by that new money back to market and we see volume again,exactly like my Blue arrows.
Blue arrows show a logical path for BTC .we drop for a little to first support area and hold there and after that we gather more trust and money and after that by a proper volume we bounce over the channel and after that again test downward channel as a support and start to climb over next resistance.I have to say it's most possible scenario in my look.
But always we have an ugly bearish possibility too,as you see in my chart i have red arrows that show you BTC drop after it can't hold first support area below it and after that BTC will try to break that resistance again but i will fail and form another ugly H&S there and move us lower to make another impact with over downward channel bottom around 5400.I mention this scenario because it's possible and honestly it have big chance to win but i don't draw that H&S now to not damage your focus.
So let's take a look to another indicators.As you remember we had a hidden bullish div in RSI and after that we made a Bottom line for RSI that hold tight.look at it:
We have a black line that show bottom and a dotted line that i think RSI will recover itself with this line if we will walk in bullish scenarios.Now we have a bearish reversal in 4HR that show us BTC need some drop like blue scenario or it can recover RSI with sideway.
In MACD we have a bullish cross over in D time frame,it's very good sign.
As i said before we are above ichimoku cloud now and it's a really bullish signal and i think we will test it soon again to enter and that will show us what is next by BTC reaction.
So it's enough for now,i will update like always with each sign or pattern i look in chart.
Thanks again for your all your kindness and togetherness.Please like this post if you like my work and BTC Realtime. Leave me your comments and opinions to show me what you think,i will answer them like always.
I have a Telegram Channel @t.me/peymana71 too that will start to work after reach 100 follower,sorry guys but i have another work to do as a Graphic Designer and i'm busy with that for 70% of my day ,and can't give telegram time, before it reach a proper number of auditions.
TELEGRAM CHANNEL : t.me/peymana71
Good Luck
Best Regards
Peyman A
Comment: Is it an iH&S????
Comment: Do remember my update of last BTC realtime?About 20 hours ago.I will Quote that again here:
"Are we gonna continue with sideways again?I think YES.Guys don't forget that Market locate in very bad situation now,There is a lot uncertainly in market and must not have huge expectation now,Just we have to hold this area until trust back to market and we see new money and volume push it over the resistance,I want to say it in different way,if you see another bounce over blue dotted line for next 12 hour,be sure it will be a very strong rally,but i see that as a miracle now."

12 hours?It's next 1 day now almost.
Comment: Hi My friends,BTC did it.
Comment: So we broke this is too soon to call downward channel "Goodbye",now we need to stay above blue dotted line and try to break second huge resistance here.we are now in that resistance area and it's possible to break it right now but again don't hurry and excited too much,it's need a rest now.As i said before we break that flag after second touch with ichimoku cloud in 4hr time frame,now we have great situation in all indicators and chart,just need to go forward.
Comment: you can see here,where we are now.
Comment: And ,Congratulations to those that trust me and entered trade with me @ 5800.now it's time to move your stops little higher around 6150.Good Luck
Comment: Guys be careful,i see people are so excited all over Trading view,i don't want to destroy it but we are in danger zone,still.And it can be just a correction or fake break out or manipulated bounce,So don't forget your stop loss
Comment: It's Soon to call this anything and need to evolve well first, but i think we will bounce sooner than i expected.
Comment: Hello my dear friends,I'm back with good news for you.
Many people here in TV talked about Rising Wedge in last days and as you saw it worked finally,but why i did not mentiond it in my Analyse?As you see i started this post with 3 possible scenarios and i expect this move frome days ago,we needed to test broken downward trend line as support and now we are doing it.I did not wants to scare people with that wedge and negetive analyse about trend till all things work normaly.last drop was a good thing for our future moves and was unavoidable move for BTC,for god sake we was in that channel for a long time and can't run from it just easy.
As you in ny chart we use this area as a support now and this is totally great,we need to hold this area to take some distance from whole correction theory,i need to add this,even if we are in a correction phase we have more room for retrace,at least to 7000.
Now i want to show you some amazing pattern that i found for a week now but need more proof to talk about.Now here we are:
We have an iH&S here in chart,meybe we have odd neckline but situation and vol profile all fit this pattern now,It's a reversal pattern and we are in try to turn a simple correction to a reversal from whole trend.we need to stay above blue downward channel and move along it to shape right shoulder.
Indicators are in good situation now,maybe we lost some Bullish momentum but it will recover soon.
Stay focus and and will post an update as soon as find new sign.
Comment: BTC try to drop more to yellow support area by this Bearish Wedge(in circle).This wedge did not evolve perfect yet but right shoulder of that iH&S(last update)have room for more drop to around 6280.
Comment: Wow,this is when a huge order/volume can destroy all patterns in less than one minute.So,let me understand situation better.
Comment: Manipulation Signs everywhere.
Comment: First i wish whole last drop was not a evolve for that wedge and we destroy it soon.
Second,do you remember i told here about odd neckline of that iH&S?we have an odd right shoulder now,so i thought it can be that and we are still in Head formation phase.it's more logical even with this wedge.look at this chart:
Now we can have a beautiful iH&S and this wedge have a better cause to drop.but with last spike i can't trust in market to walk in classic way and every minute enough amount of money/volume can change everything in anyway.
Comment: Hello my friends,I'm back with a quick update.
In last days BTC did not make a move that needs an update and just continued as we expected.
As you can see in this chart we dropped out of that wedge exactly after entered it again and that show us nature of that move was not normal but with all of that, we have a normal upward channel now.It's soon to count on this new channel and need to test more but it's important that we have it finally.
In this channel price moved in shape of a triangle.you can see it here in chart bellow i draw it wit blue.
As you can se i draw it in two way and in one of them i draw it (dotted blue) out of this channel.What is here important is price reaction after reaching to impact between blue line and black channel.it's kind of triangles that not show us clear what will happen.But if we drop down after that to blue dotted line (bottom),we will form a bearish triangle with potential H&S formation that can move us lower than first yellow support area.But it's soon to judge about any of this,i think we will bounce up after reaching that spot, personally.
For now i pretty sure that we have a little bearish wedge,you can see in chart bellow.this can help us reach black line(channel trend line) easily,but don't forget that in manipulators market everything can happen,you saw an example 2 days ago.
Comment: *I posted last chart twice. :))
Comment: Moved as i expected.
Comment: This is what can help prce togo lower and break this channel to blue dotted line.A H&S
Comment: God love me guys,we bounced after close to that area.now we are in neckline of big iH&S that i started this idea with.fasten your seat belts,bros.
Comment: Don't forget we can test neckline several time before bounce up.
Comment: Guys,thanks you all for your likes and comments.We have BTC Realtime #6 now.Join me there
Comment: Guys this is future,believe me.

Comments

Hi, I’m also new here and found your analysis interesting and logical.
Keep up on the good work, and if you have David assistance you certainly will be a great analist!
Thanks for the time!
+2 Reply
Peymana71 JuanPabloRueda
@JuanPabloRueda, You're welcome my friend,no i wished i was his assistance but i learned with read his TAs and that helped me to use what i learned in books in real charts.Thanks for your kind comment,hope i can do my job well and help others with that.
+1 Reply
raaajesh Peymana71
@Peymana71, Can you suggest the books you read?
Reply
Peymana71 raaajesh
@raaajesh, Every analyst here read this books but what make different between them is experience in Trading.Analyst that don't trade can't be good Analyst.Read this for Basics but you can learn just from internet and analyses here in Trading View.
1.Technical Analysis Explained by Martin Pring
2.Candlesticks Explained by Martin Pring
(number 1 and 2 are like Bible of Analysts)
3.Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy (if you read 2 first one don't need to read this again.)
4.Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Thomas Bulkowski
5.Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes by Brian Shannon
Believe me most of these are just repeat same facts in different eras.If you ask anyone here suggest you these books specially Murphy's book but i don't suggest it to anyone even if he is rockstar between Analysts
Good Luck
.
+1 Reply
raaajesh Peymana71
@Peymana71, Wow, Thanks a lot Paymana for your kind response.
Reply
Peymana71 raaajesh
@raaajesh, You're Welcome my friend.
Reply
Wow,what a great job,3 analysis in one night and you work as a Designer 70% of your day time?Are you superman?but when you sleep?it’s 6 in morning in iran and you published 3 TA in time you must sleep?i don’t want to talk like mothers but you need to give yourself a break bro.Thanks for your great work.
+2 Reply
Peymana71 MinaS74
@MinaS74, Haahaaa,you just talked like mothers.Yeah i need that break but... .I want take bath now and go to my main job for next 12 hour,just like Superman.
+1 Reply
Still seeing a lot of weakness in the market, as much as I really want to be optimistic right now the volume profile just doesn’t fit a reversal in my eyes. We had a nice spike but it didn’t strike me as a ‘hold onto your trousers’ kind of spike

What is interesting is both the longs and the shorts charts both look bearish at the moment, which says market indecision to me

As always dude, great work
+1 Reply
Peymana71 MikeLeChat
@MikeLeChat, Thanks my friend,it's a wisely comment.I see a lot indecision in market too,but sometimes indecision in the best thing for bulls,sometime we need to just bored bears and ... .
+1 Reply
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