Bitcoin correction is near! Target ~ 6500
Just as my 2019 prediction, I thought bitcoin near correction after the bull run from Feb.2019.
Here are why:
Percentage of gain:
From 07.Feb of 2019, bitcoin last more than 4 month bullish run, price of bitcoin jump from 3390 to 9444 (17.June), the percentage of gain is 178%, I analysis each bull run of last bull market (price from Bitstamp).
from 24.Aug of 2015 to 02.Nov of 2015, last ~ 2.5 month, price from 198 to 502, gain 153%
from 09.Nov of 2015 to 13.June of 2016, last ~ 7 month, price from 294 to 778, gain 164%
from 15.Aug of 2016 to 02.Jan of 2017, last ~ 4.5 month, price from 552 to 1139, gain 106%
from 09.Jan of 2017 to 06.Mar of 2017, last ~ 2 month, price from 751 to 1350, gain 80%
from 20.Mar of 2017 to 05.June of 2017, last ~ 2.5 month, price from 891 to 2967, gain 232%
from 10.July of 2017 to 28.Aug of 2017, last ~ 1.5 month, price from 1830 to 4169, gain 128%
from 11.Sep of 2017 to 06.Nov of 2017, last ~ 2 month, price from 2972 to 7888, gain 165%
from 06.Nov of 2017 to 11.Dec of 2017, last ~ 1 month, price from 5555 to 19666, gain 254%
bull run range from 80% to 254%, the average gain is 160% for each bull run.
Current gain is ~ 178%, above the average bull run gain, which is a sign of overbought.
Bull Run Time
The average bull run time is 2.8 month, current bull run time last around 4 month, which is a sign of correction time near.
Moving average
A health bull run should periodical retest the moving average, but currently, the bitcoin is very bullish, much more above the 20 week moving average, which is the most important support moving average in last bull run. let see is price drop to test the moving average, or hold waiting for moving average catch up the price increase?
Market strength
whole market in overbought zone(RSI of week and daily) very long times, I don't think it can last forever, and from the volume observation, it's decrease over time, seems like the new money flow into crypto market decreased, more and more investor is waiting in the front of the door.
OTC USDT price
OTC USDT price is a good measure to reflect the investor's enthusiasm for the market, USDT price dropped from 1.04 usd to 1.0 usd. and I observed serval OTC market, the price is the same. Reflect investor is decreasing.
Next, let look at the technical analysis of bitcoin
9000 and 8830 is the important support line of bitcoin, 8830 is the most, if cannot hold, H&S formed, I thought we will see massive short volume after 8830 break.
If I'm lucky, this prediction come true, what's our plan?
Bug in Fib : 38%: 7143, 50%: 6417, 62%: 5690
Another aspect is buy in MA 10, MA 15, and MA 20 of bitcoin weekly price.
Combine all of analysis, I thought bitcoin final correction price is around ~ 6500.
Thanks for your watching, if you like this thread, pls like :)
Here are why:
Percentage of gain:
From 07.Feb of 2019, bitcoin last more than 4 month bullish run, price of bitcoin jump from 3390 to 9444 (17.June), the percentage of gain is 178%, I analysis each bull run of last bull market (price from Bitstamp).
from 24.Aug of 2015 to 02.Nov of 2015, last ~ 2.5 month, price from 198 to 502, gain 153%
from 09.Nov of 2015 to 13.June of 2016, last ~ 7 month, price from 294 to 778, gain 164%
from 15.Aug of 2016 to 02.Jan of 2017, last ~ 4.5 month, price from 552 to 1139, gain 106%
from 09.Jan of 2017 to 06.Mar of 2017, last ~ 2 month, price from 751 to 1350, gain 80%
from 20.Mar of 2017 to 05.June of 2017, last ~ 2.5 month, price from 891 to 2967, gain 232%
from 10.July of 2017 to 28.Aug of 2017, last ~ 1.5 month, price from 1830 to 4169, gain 128%
from 11.Sep of 2017 to 06.Nov of 2017, last ~ 2 month, price from 2972 to 7888, gain 165%
from 06.Nov of 2017 to 11.Dec of 2017, last ~ 1 month, price from 5555 to 19666, gain 254%
bull run range from 80% to 254%, the average gain is 160% for each bull run.
Current gain is ~ 178%, above the average bull run gain, which is a sign of overbought.
Bull Run Time
The average bull run time is 2.8 month, current bull run time last around 4 month, which is a sign of correction time near.
Moving average
A health bull run should periodical retest the moving average, but currently, the bitcoin is very bullish, much more above the 20 week moving average, which is the most important support moving average in last bull run. let see is price drop to test the moving average, or hold waiting for moving average catch up the price increase?
Market strength
whole market in overbought zone(RSI of week and daily) very long times, I don't think it can last forever, and from the volume observation, it's decrease over time, seems like the new money flow into crypto market decreased, more and more investor is waiting in the front of the door.
OTC USDT price
OTC USDT price is a good measure to reflect the investor's enthusiasm for the market, USDT price dropped from 1.04 usd to 1.0 usd. and I observed serval OTC market, the price is the same. Reflect investor is decreasing.
Next, let look at the technical analysis of bitcoin
If I'm lucky, this prediction come true, what's our plan?
Bug in Fib : 38%: 7143, 50%: 6417, 62%: 5690
Another aspect is buy in MA 10, MA 15, and MA 20 of bitcoin weekly price.
Combine all of analysis, I thought bitcoin final correction price is around ~ 6500.
Thanks for your watching, if you like this thread, pls like :)
Trade active:
even if every indicator indicated need a break, but market is market, sentiment is non-rational, in short, the uptrends are strong, have no clue about the distribution stage, in order to see correction, 4H time frame lower low and lower high should be formed. we should wait and see.
Trade active:
Finally after the FOMO, we see the real short strength! my target still in play, and I'm very sure this correction will be very big things! the FOMO guy will bleed and all of fresh will pay the gate fee for crypto currency. Keep remember : patience is the best merit for the traders.
Trade active:
Good short setup! we find the first support in ~ 10600, and as you can see from following chart, have possibility to form the H&S pattern, next plan is keep short order in ~ 11400. let's keep ride the trend!
Trade active:
On the way to test the resistance : the high of left shoulder, high probability will be fail. and then two scenario, consolidate in the range 10600~ 11400, or just dump again below 10600, if the second scenario in play, next support will be ~9000.
On the way to test the resistance : the high of left shoulder, high probability will be fail. and then two scenario, consolidate in the range 10600~ 11400, or just dump again below 10600, if the second scenario in play, next support will be ~9000.
Trade active:
Dangerous!
Trade active:
The correction of downside correction formed a uptrend channel, but looks weak for now. 12300 and 12100 need to hold, and uptrend still in play, otherwise, we may see dump incoming.
Comment:
Bull triangle inside the uptrend channel, bull need volume to break out.
Trade active:
Direction choosing very close, seems like everyone is waiting for direction clear and then take action.
Trade active:
Good move, bulls need pull back to uptrend channel quickly, and need to hold ~ 12200, otherwise, uptrend channel may break.
Comment:
Bear just have a try, but look at the volume, bull seems like would not to hold the bull channel, no volume observed.
Comment:
I have to say the short term has high probability to change after the uptrend channel break. as long as bull don't pull back, the probability is high.
Comment:
Next support ~ 12200
Comment:
That is what I said we should be a trend rider, don't add our thought into reality, be objective! when the uptrend channel break, and bulls not show there strength to pull back, bear take over the game again!
That is what I said we should be a trend rider, don't add our thought into reality, be objective! when the uptrend channel break, and bulls not show there strength to pull back, bear take over the game again!
Comment:
Trade active:
Still bull don't want to buy after uptrend channel break, where is the next support ?
First ~ 11000
Second ~ 10500
First ~ 11000
Second ~ 10500
Comment:
Here is the proposal for what's the next.
Trade active:
What's in the end uptrend channel?
Trade active:
Is it a good call?
Trade active:
Great call! aha:)
Trade active:
Look how exactly the real path align with our proposal, current in support ~ 11500-116000, but I don't think it can be hold. let's see ~ 11000 & 10500 in next stage.
Trade active:
so far, so good!
Trade active:
Never see bitcoin weaken like this from the bull run, 10500 is must to test, if cannot hold, huge sell off will be in play, and bulls should take a break.
Trade active:
that was I told you, the final support to test ~ 10500, if fail, we will see another bleeding week in crypto history.
Trade active:
winter is coming. let's see 9000 as next stop. and a bleeding week.
