Tom Hall Market Review #3 - Wednesday, 13 March 2019
Tom Hall Market Review #3 - Wednesday, 13 March 2019
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The CAD.JPY throughout March has presented clean technicals on the approach to significant structure levels across multiple trading timeframes.
A weekly doji, followed by an acceleration candle formed rejecting the 84.40 horizontal structure resistance, 50EMA, and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. This indicates additional acceleration is highly probable.
The ascending wedge and Daily 50EMA breakout confirmed my weekly timeframe thesis. However, additional development was required on the 4-hour timeframe to establish the timing of entry.
Significant deceleration on the 4-hour timeframe approaching the 83.60 horizontal structure resistance, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA presented a textbook trading opportunity and confirming my entry criteria.
CAD.JPY (S) was initiated on Tuesday, 12 March 2019
British Pound / Australian Dollar
The weekly 1.8600 horizontal structure resistance was rejected at the beginning of March. However, I wasn't convinced this would present a trade opportunity given that price continued to form HH's and HL's without the RSI testing overbought status.
The Daily ascending trendline and 50EMA continued to provide support, confirming my weekly timeframe concerns.
Although technically price was still bullish, I was happy to execute a quick 1:1 position, targeting the structural support.
The 4-hour timeframe failed to consolidate after the breach of ascending trendline and 50EMA, invalidating any trading opportunity.
Of course, the indecision surrounding Brexit was a cause for concern, and considering the technicals were less than great I was happy not to execute a position.
British Pound / Canadian Dollar
The 1.7570 weekly horizontal structure rejection presented a level of interest after a period of indecision.
The RSI failed to provide an overbought status or divergence, indicating a sell-off would be short-lived.
Daily timeframe structure helped identify a clear trading zone that would present a potential take profit level, should the intraday timeframes align.
The 4-hour trend change provided an additional positive confluence factor.
However, as price developed it was clear a consolidation period back into intraday structure resistance wouldn't be enough to convince me to execute a short position.
An active position was not initiated for two reasons.
1. The CAD.JPY short opportunity presented more reward comparative to risk, in addition to stronger confluence factors.
2. Similar to that of the British Pound / Australian Dollar, my concern surrounding the Brexit negotiations added to the negative confluence.
Euro / Japanese Yen
The EUR.JPY presented all the positive confluence factors that are required before executing a position.
Weekly bearish engulfing candle rejecting the 127.30 horizontal resistance, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA, and 200EMA.
The Daily timeframe closed below the ascending and horizontal structure support, in addition to the 50EMA.
The 4-hour also confirmed my higher timeframe thesis, with a breach of the ascending trendline and 50EMA.
A consolidation period retesting the intraday 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA and 200EMA were expected and required before a short opportunity.
I tallied up both positive and negative confluence factors on the CAD.JPY and EUR.JPY, by doing so allowed me to identify the highest probability for both currency pairs.
The CAD.JPY (S) was initiated due to the additional structure levels between our entry and stop loss.
Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen
The CHF.JPY weekly timeframe provided a firm rejection of the 112.00 psychological horizontal resistance, descending trendline, 50EMA, and 200EMA.
Similar to that of the EUR.JPY, I tallied up the confluence factors against the CAD.JPY.
The CHF.JPY daily timeframe failed to provide a structure or clear trend, this added to the negative confluence and inevitably wasn't as favorable compared to the other Japanese Yen pairs on the trade watchlist.
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The CAD.JPY throughout March has presented clean technicals on the approach to significant structure levels across multiple trading timeframes.
A weekly doji, followed by an acceleration candle formed rejecting the 84.40 horizontal structure resistance, 50EMA, and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement. This indicates additional acceleration is highly probable.
The ascending wedge and Daily 50EMA breakout confirmed my weekly timeframe thesis. However, additional development was required on the 4-hour timeframe to establish the timing of entry.
Significant deceleration on the 4-hour timeframe approaching the 83.60 horizontal structure resistance, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA presented a textbook trading opportunity and confirming my entry criteria.
CAD.JPY (S) was initiated on Tuesday, 12 March 2019
British Pound / Australian Dollar
The weekly 1.8600 horizontal structure resistance was rejected at the beginning of March. However, I wasn't convinced this would present a trade opportunity given that price continued to form HH's and HL's without the RSI testing overbought status.
The Daily ascending trendline and 50EMA continued to provide support, confirming my weekly timeframe concerns.
Although technically price was still bullish, I was happy to execute a quick 1:1 position, targeting the structural support.
The 4-hour timeframe failed to consolidate after the breach of ascending trendline and 50EMA, invalidating any trading opportunity.
Of course, the indecision surrounding Brexit was a cause for concern, and considering the technicals were less than great I was happy not to execute a position.
British Pound / Canadian Dollar
The 1.7570 weekly horizontal structure rejection presented a level of interest after a period of indecision.
The RSI failed to provide an overbought status or divergence, indicating a sell-off would be short-lived.
Daily timeframe structure helped identify a clear trading zone that would present a potential take profit level, should the intraday timeframes align.
The 4-hour trend change provided an additional positive confluence factor.
However, as price developed it was clear a consolidation period back into intraday structure resistance wouldn't be enough to convince me to execute a short position.
An active position was not initiated for two reasons.
1. The CAD.JPY short opportunity presented more reward comparative to risk, in addition to stronger confluence factors.
2. Similar to that of the British Pound / Australian Dollar, my concern surrounding the Brexit negotiations added to the negative confluence.
Euro / Japanese Yen
The EUR.JPY presented all the positive confluence factors that are required before executing a position.
Weekly bearish engulfing candle rejecting the 127.30 horizontal resistance, 61.80% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA, and 200EMA.
The Daily timeframe closed below the ascending and horizontal structure support, in addition to the 50EMA.
The 4-hour also confirmed my higher timeframe thesis, with a breach of the ascending trendline and 50EMA.
A consolidation period retesting the intraday 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA and 200EMA were expected and required before a short opportunity.
I tallied up both positive and negative confluence factors on the CAD.JPY and EUR.JPY, by doing so allowed me to identify the highest probability for both currency pairs.
The CAD.JPY (S) was initiated due to the additional structure levels between our entry and stop loss.
Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen
The CHF.JPY weekly timeframe provided a firm rejection of the 112.00 psychological horizontal resistance, descending trendline, 50EMA, and 200EMA.
Similar to that of the EUR.JPY, I tallied up the confluence factors against the CAD.JPY.
The CHF.JPY daily timeframe failed to provide a structure or clear trend, this added to the negative confluence and inevitably wasn't as favorable compared to the other Japanese Yen pairs on the trade watchlist.
