Tom Hall Market Review #5 - Sunday, 17 March 2019
Tom Hall Market Review #5 - Sunday, 17 March 2019
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The CAD.JPY (S) was executed on Tuesday, 12 March 2019 after presenting textbook technicals and healthy reward comparative to risk.
Technicals consist of the weekly 84.40 horizontal structure resistance, 50EMA, and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.
Daily ascending wedge breakout, 84.20 horizontal structure and 200EMA providing additional structure.
A timed entry was initiated after deceleration occurred approaching the 50EMA, 200EMA, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, and 83.60 intraday horizontal structure resistance.
Throughout last week the 4-hour timeframe consolidated deeper than initially expected. However, once the intraday ascending trendline was breached price accelerated, closing back below 83.60 horizontal structure support.
The CAD.JPY (S) position remains active.
Stop loss placement is protected above all significant structure levels across multiple trading timeframes.
Adjusting or closing this position at 0.21% DD would be the result of emotional and impulsive behavior, and not reading the technicals available.
Euro / U.S. Dollar
Twenty nineteen has presented a textbook descending channel that outlines trading levels inside a 45 Pip range.
The minimal reward comparative to risk at 2:1 isn't a huge concern should the additional development on the 4-hour timeframe confirm my entry criteria.
Analyzing the weekly timeframe indicates the retest of the descending lower trendline on the daily timeframe was a false breakout of the 1.1300 horizontal structure support on the weekly timeframe.
This information doesn't impact a swing trading position due to the larger stop loss required.
New Zealand / Swiss Franc
The NZD.CHF has entered a crucial trading zone that will be significant as we progress through next week.
Inexperienced traders should treat with caution due to the traps likely to develop.
The weekly high-test reversal candle and bearish RSI divergence indicate a breach of the daily ascending trendline is highly probable. However, the months of indecisive price action could catch many unprepared traders in both bull and bear traps.
With this in mind, I require additional development throughout next week to present more positive confluence factors.
S&P 500
The ascending channel breakout rejecting 2815.0 on the 04, March 2019 was short lived after a low-test reversal candle formed rejecting the Daily 50EMA.
Intraday, the 2815.0 is available as support as the price is expected to test 2870.0
Bitcoin
Predicting Bitcoin's next significant move is immensely difficult; the equilibrium between buyers and sellers confirms the indecision approaching the descending trendline dated 30, April 2018.
The two significant trading levels at 6130.0 and 3100.0 continue to be relevant as we await a descending trendline retest to occur.
The reward comparative to risk is minimal; this is taking into consideration the structure previously outlined.
USOIL
On Sunday, 03 February 2019, I outlined the significant structure and potential trading zone at $60.00
This week I'm intrigued to observe the development of price, potentially presenting a short opportunity in the process.
A doji / high-test reversal candle is required to indicate a rejection of key multi-timeframe structure resistance.
The weekly structure consists of the $60.00 horizontal resistance, ascending trendline, 50.00% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA, and 200EMA.
A healthy reward comparative to risk has the potential to exceed 4:1
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
The CAD.JPY (S) was executed on Tuesday, 12 March 2019 after presenting textbook technicals and healthy reward comparative to risk.
Technicals consist of the weekly 84.40 horizontal structure resistance, 50EMA, and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.
Daily ascending wedge breakout, 84.20 horizontal structure and 200EMA providing additional structure.
A timed entry was initiated after deceleration occurred approaching the 50EMA, 200EMA, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, and 83.60 intraday horizontal structure resistance.
Throughout last week the 4-hour timeframe consolidated deeper than initially expected. However, once the intraday ascending trendline was breached price accelerated, closing back below 83.60 horizontal structure support.
The CAD.JPY (S) position remains active.
Stop loss placement is protected above all significant structure levels across multiple trading timeframes.
Adjusting or closing this position at 0.21% DD would be the result of emotional and impulsive behavior, and not reading the technicals available.
Euro / U.S. Dollar
Twenty nineteen has presented a textbook descending channel that outlines trading levels inside a 45 Pip range.
The minimal reward comparative to risk at 2:1 isn't a huge concern should the additional development on the 4-hour timeframe confirm my entry criteria.
Analyzing the weekly timeframe indicates the retest of the descending lower trendline on the daily timeframe was a false breakout of the 1.1300 horizontal structure support on the weekly timeframe.
This information doesn't impact a swing trading position due to the larger stop loss required.
New Zealand / Swiss Franc
The NZD.CHF has entered a crucial trading zone that will be significant as we progress through next week.
Inexperienced traders should treat with caution due to the traps likely to develop.
The weekly high-test reversal candle and bearish RSI divergence indicate a breach of the daily ascending trendline is highly probable. However, the months of indecisive price action could catch many unprepared traders in both bull and bear traps.
With this in mind, I require additional development throughout next week to present more positive confluence factors.
S&P 500
The ascending channel breakout rejecting 2815.0 on the 04, March 2019 was short lived after a low-test reversal candle formed rejecting the Daily 50EMA.
Intraday, the 2815.0 is available as support as the price is expected to test 2870.0
Bitcoin
Predicting Bitcoin's next significant move is immensely difficult; the equilibrium between buyers and sellers confirms the indecision approaching the descending trendline dated 30, April 2018.
The two significant trading levels at 6130.0 and 3100.0 continue to be relevant as we await a descending trendline retest to occur.
The reward comparative to risk is minimal; this is taking into consideration the structure previously outlined.
USOIL
On Sunday, 03 February 2019, I outlined the significant structure and potential trading zone at $60.00
This week I'm intrigued to observe the development of price, potentially presenting a short opportunity in the process.
A doji / high-test reversal candle is required to indicate a rejection of key multi-timeframe structure resistance.
The weekly structure consists of the $60.00 horizontal resistance, ascending trendline, 50.00% Fibonacci retracement, 50EMA, and 200EMA.
A healthy reward comparative to risk has the potential to exceed 4:1
Trade closed manually:
CAD.JPY (S) Closed +0.26%
