DanV
Short

CADJPY - POTENTIAL SHORT ENTRY - COULD BECOME LONG TERM TRADE

FX_IDC:CADJPY   Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
Most of the other YEN pairs have recently declined strongly from earlier in the year which in varying degree are being retraced with some possibly still in progress and others might have just completed.

CADJPY             - appears to be such pair that might have completed the retracement and could be in very early stage of resumption of the down trend and potentially offer very good short entry that could turn into significant long term short and possibly very strong dynamic as it could be wave C decline from Dec 2015 high

Here is the Technical summary

(A) From Monthly chart (see chart below) we note that:
1. It topped in Dec 2017 at 125 area we had noticeable sell of creating a low in Jan 2009 at 68.5 in a zigzag decline.
2. It has been retracing since and in Dec 2014 completed 66.67% (2/3rd) which is a Gann retracement level.
3. Hit the resistance at median line of the rising pitchfork .
4. Then made initial drop again that has been retraced to just over 61.8%.

(B) In addition to Monthly we note the following from Daily chart:
1. The retracement of the Feb low at 91.70 area has been a zigzag and has retrace 61.8% of the prior decline.
2. second leg of the zigzag could be potential rising wedge which would suggest move the upside is complete or very close to completion
2. Clear price divergence with both RSI and MACD which has bearish cross over.

This setup could potential offer very profitable trade with stop just above the recent high and entry could be located using 4Hr time frame or say break below 98 as conservative entry.

Downside targets could be:
Target 1 = 85 (previous resistance that could become potential support)
Target 2 = 68 (Previous structure low of Dec 2009)
Target 3 = 52 to 50 being 127.2% extension of the move from 125.40 to 68.32

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
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Thanks for the analysis Dan! I always appreciate seeing your perspective on a chart, very thorough and well done!
+1 Reply
nice long term chart, with some serious potential! alway great to see your charts!
have been in this for a while, and while my patience has been tested (jumped the gun a bit early...), today it finally seems we are heading in the right direction.
last 4hr candles are looking good, with quite a clear break and hold below the 50 & 100 Ma's.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD mcpeacocks
Thanks. If fact looking at most of the YEN pairs it seem like one is spoilt for choice. AUDJPY also looks excellent. However CADJPY I think was first of the block on this run so I focused on that.

So will be keen to follow this and could offer multiple exists and entries along the way. Enjoy the run.
+1 Reply


I attempted a short but didn't move as fast as I expected.

In waiting mode now.
+2 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
Might have minor swing high to form on that small time frame but worth watching.
+2 Reply
Yes, I'm watching it, no need to rush in with such a potentially large move ahead.
Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
I think on H4 or better on Hrly, you will notice possible leading diagonal, if so then now we need abc retracement which appears to be in progress.
+1 Reply
Ah, I'll check that out.
Reply
Here is the monthly chart referred to
snapshot
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