smitheric1970

Long Oil - 47.4 Touch, Peek, Break

Long
NYMEX:CLU2017   CRUDE OIL FUTURES (SEP 2017)
I want to say first that this is a risky entry; with oversupply and OPEC possibly disagreeing on continuing/extending/deepening cuts at next week's meeting Monday, we could see prices tumble into the 40 .3-41.4 level; however, I think we may be in for some mid term boring 45-48 sideways price action for a while before any larger movements and that prices will take a crack at the 49 level soon. I sometimes see a series of swings at a strong price level, signs of strength chiseling away at sellers on the way up or buyers on the way down, in this case 47.4; we saw a touch, then a peek through (where I am hoping we lost a few sellers) and I am now looking for a break of 47.4-47.5. I am targeting a weekly inflection on the CLU7 (September) contract at 48.04, then 49.27; and am suggesting taking partial profits at 48.00 and closing at 49.16. Again, this is a risky entry in lieu of the selloff last week into Monday's OPEC meeting and the success of this trade seems completely dependent on OPEC supporting temporarily convincing the market of higher prices with cut agreements (which at this point is getting hard to believe).

Trade: Active
Entry: 45.30-45.60
SL: 44.64
TP1: 48.00 Close partial positions (I will likely suggest re-adding these partial positions at 47.5)
TP2: 49.16

Good trading all!
Trade active: 45.60 Entry Active
Comment: TP1 of 48.00 Reached, suggest taking partial profits if multiple on entry. This will ensure partial profits prior to EIA and a potential re-adding of those contracts. I will be adding/re-adding long positions between 47.4-47.7 level if we see a pullback. SL below 46.9
Trade closed: target reached: Trade closed, TP2 reached. I think it is very possible that oil see 3/4 dollar sideways action for a few weeks possibly 46/47-49/50. More to come...

Good trading all!