Mr. Dow – what, if we are in a bear market?
Hello everyone,
this is a long-term analysis for all of us who want to know which directions we can expect the next month. I think we are in between a very exciting period, because the Dow is in correction-mode on a higher wave degree, so this means that we will get good chances to trade in both directions.
Where we are standing?
The all-time-high at 26.616 was a wave 3 of higher degree (purple in brackets), so now we are in wave 4 of exactly this degree. That means, that we will see courses around 20.400 or lower. But: the movement down to this level will not be fast. As you can see in the chart above, I expect a complex correction pattern.
Superordinate there is an ABC-pattern (cyan). The last uptrend was wave B (cyan). And now, we are in wave C (cyan). The most likely structure of this wave will be another abc-pattern on a lower wave degree (purple in brackets).
The last sell-off was wave a (purple). Now, it’s getting exciting: the Dow will move up to complete wave b (purple), potentially 1.700 points! If I am right, we then will see the final sell-off to complete wave c (purple) of 4 (purple) – potentially 5.800 points! It is worth thinking of trading the dow now!
The point is: the most expected movement now is up, because it will be either wave b or a resumption of the uptrend. But this, we have to decide later on. Updates will follow…
Please note, that the S&P 500 is in a similar structure.
Take care,
tgo
this is a long-term analysis for all of us who want to know which directions we can expect the next month. I think we are in between a very exciting period, because the Dow is in correction-mode on a higher wave degree, so this means that we will get good chances to trade in both directions.
Where we are standing?
The all-time-high at 26.616 was a wave 3 of higher degree (purple in brackets), so now we are in wave 4 of exactly this degree. That means, that we will see courses around 20.400 or lower. But: the movement down to this level will not be fast. As you can see in the chart above, I expect a complex correction pattern.
Superordinate there is an ABC-pattern (cyan). The last uptrend was wave B (cyan). And now, we are in wave C (cyan). The most likely structure of this wave will be another abc-pattern on a lower wave degree (purple in brackets).
The last sell-off was wave a (purple). Now, it’s getting exciting: the Dow will move up to complete wave b (purple), potentially 1.700 points! If I am right, we then will see the final sell-off to complete wave c (purple) of 4 (purple) – potentially 5.800 points! It is worth thinking of trading the dow now!
The point is: the most expected movement now is up, because it will be either wave b or a resumption of the uptrend. But this, we have to decide later on. Updates will follow…
Please note, that the S&P 500 is in a similar structure.
Take care,
tgo
HK-Capital-Management
