Gaps to fill down to 2949 on SPX will be the best yardstick for . Buy all-in when price fills that gap IMO . Donald will make some deal with China soon as he wants to get elected, and that draws near. Expect some development in mid-Dec as catalyst.
Market knows he will get re-elected, Dems have no competitive candidate in field, their prospects are amusing at best and impeachment is a farce.
This isn't investing advice! Trade at your own risk! GLTA!
The Three Drives to Top are clearly evident in SPX chart from 28 Oct - 27 Nov...!
DJIA has relatively less gain with the double top on resistance; RSI has weakened and daily volume is nil at these prices.
Fibonacci time on the current Wyckoff UTAD is at 55 days on 11/27. Might have completed then, confirm in week of 2 Dec. An extended Fibo time cycle could go to 89 days, reaching to Monday 30 Dec. This would be extremely adverse to Dec contracts!
Still holding the ETF SPXL, small hedged pos.
C leg in this minor correction target ~3040 +/- 10 pips, Dow ~ 26800 +/- 100. There is strong support zone there at the October breakout zone. Do not expect a massive selloff, this is a bull pullback, normal trading behavior, not a panic.
As surprising as the bullishness has been on Friday 12/6 after rosy jobs report (I really expected this to be weak, as the Oct report we got in Nov was tepid), notably the 5m volumes all day have been alternating between bull/bear and resisitance at the secondary top does suggest prices may have peaked again at the same level. Looks like distribution ongoing, imo in fact, behind the scenes. I'm holding half my bear spreads, and closed out partial position to realize significant gains on the short legs, of >80% in some contracts. Added VIX calls May $20 strikes and more VIXY, UVXY. These don' expire so you get to just hold them until they realize improvement! You can write calls on them while u wait, and I am; but look out for VIXY calls' thin liquidity and wide MM spreads.
Good weekend to all!
Bull Trends have three phases: Accumulation, Public Particiaption, Excess;
Bear trends have three phases: Distribution, Public Participation, Despair >Panic.
We are clearly in Excess, with Distribution ongoing even now if you study the 5m and 15m volumes, a terrific amount of selling went on Friday even as the prices rose; smart money is dumping shares into the market at these high prices.
There may be as much as 1% remaining in this Bull wave before rollover. I take positions, hedge and wait! When it starts, selling will be sudden and fierce.
Have a look at Dow Theory again, refresh these 6 simple tenets:
The Trend is ur Friend, till the End when she Bend! GLTA!
LOL, no 'deal' in sight...
I closed puts in the AM rush and added some VIX calls on the pullback, so playing this a bit closer to chest with 6-month volatility bet on calls.
It is quite possible and likely that bulls could run back up for one more try at the ATH in Dec/Jan AKA 'Santa Rally.' R/R is poor again, take what the market gives!
If you think it's going down, maybe you should chart a scenario that shows a down move. Also, you're going to feel real stupid if your chart's correct, lol.
It's too easy for the computers to pump futures, I'm not shorting indices unless there's horrible news. Right now I only have ne short position, carried my calls overnight on a few stocks because they all went up today.
When I buy calls I get the CBOE contracts on VIX itself. These are a bit thinly held, but there is a market and u can trade them. VIXY calls are terrible, no liquidity.
At the end of July, VIX was at 12, UVXY was at $24.
Through the month of November, the VIX was bouncing off of 12 again, UVXY was around the same area it is now, $15 and change.
If you are accumulating UVXY with the expectation that it's going to hit $90 again any time soon, you are going to lose. Keep in mind that last December was an epic tank and UVXY was at $22 at the end of September 2018, so a similar drop now would get you around $50.
In order to get the true picture of the decay, pull up the 6 year chart on UVXY.
All futures gaps fill, pay attention to futures....
Nice play BTW, expecting a gap up tomorrow. If the market turns around, it'll be tomorrow on the Fed meeting.