The recent move in the dollar has put a lot of pressure on oil recently...as it has been skidding around $80 the past few days.
Yesterday's API report showed a small increase in oil inventories and the market is waiting for confirmation from EIA later today.
It looks as though a confirmation has already been priced in and only an unexpected increase well above +600k barrels would shock the market to further downside in the short term.
The structural market to watch is the dollar which has seen a 200 basis point move in a very short time frame. The DXY looks quite a bit extended. If we get a reversion to the mean in the dollar...oil should explode higher.
Today we have quite a few Fed speakers and a 20 year bond auction which could move the dollar.
So today may be a make or break day for oil.
Yesterday's API report showed a small increase in oil inventories and the market is waiting for confirmation from EIA later today.
It looks as though a confirmation has already been priced in and only an unexpected increase well above +600k barrels would shock the market to further downside in the short term.
The structural market to watch is the dollar which has seen a 200 basis point move in a very short time frame. The DXY looks quite a bit extended. If we get a reversion to the mean in the dollar...oil should explode higher.
Today we have quite a few Fed speakers and a 20 year bond auction which could move the dollar.
So today may be a make or break day for oil.