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U.S. DOLLAR INDEX We haven't seen the cyclical bottom yet

Short
INDEX:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
Following the stimulus news this week, there is a lot of talk around the USD and whether it will rise or fall as a result of the rescue package. I decided that it may be the perfect time to look at the (much) larger picture to see where we stand. This is a simple study on the DXY ( U.S. Dollar Index ) on the 1M time-frame, representing its Cycles in the span of decades.

As you see it is the perfect example of Sine Waves. There are very clear Cycle Tops and Bottoms since the 1960s. The Tops appear to be on average 190 months (almost 16 years), while the Bottoms 175 on avg so far, but based on the since waves they may follow a +20 bar sequence. As a result, while the next top for the DXY (which I have to add at this point that the sequence is Lower Highs) may be around 2032/33, the next Bottom (based on the waves) should be around 2025. That means that we are still a long way of seeing the cyclical bottom and the best course of action is to sell every rally.



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Comments

Very nice
+1 Reply
I agree but that if you look at where the dollar is, it bounces from the support level many times. If it falls below 88 then I would be convinced this is bearish. Because this is on such a high time frame we can see the dollar fall later such as in the 70's.
Reply
Awesome study, thx for time and effort .
Reply
Check what 2008 stimulus has done to dollar
Reply
The bad news has been digested
Reply
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