Hey everyone,
Hope you all are keeping well. It has been a good while since I shared anything, but this actually is something I want to share.
Many people are bullish again, but I'd like to weigh in here a little. Just so that both sides of the coin get some attention.
I was looking into Bitcoin's relation with the US Dollar Currency Index (DXY). Historically, big bull-runs occurred when the DXY is in a downtrend.
Now looking at this chart on a monthly timeframe is can be stated that the DXY broke out of a 30yr downtrend from 2015 onwards. Quite a significant event one could argue.
We all know, Bitcoin came into existence, somewhere in January of 2009. Ever since, on a macro level, the DXY has been in uptrend. This can be supported by the fact the IMF and FED have been vigorously printing money in avoidance of a macro economic recession. Purchasing power has been in steep decline, because these inflative events tend to end up in the pockets of those who already have a considerable amount in them.
Apart for any further socio-economical opinion, in the chart are a few findings I wish to share.
(Green areas are the approximate historical bull-runs and the current one (thus far). Generally within these areas the DXY was trending down. More than not with some volatility, which can be found in most mid-cycle retracements.)
Big question now is. What will happend next?
Will we recapture some support levels or will we get another rejection before we can find some consolidation around the $44K-$45K price levels?
Watch your step out there. Anything can happend and anything will happen. As always.
Thanks for time and wish you a very pleasant day.
Hope you all are keeping well. It has been a good while since I shared anything, but this actually is something I want to share.
Many people are bullish again, but I'd like to weigh in here a little. Just so that both sides of the coin get some attention.
I was looking into Bitcoin's relation with the US Dollar Currency Index (DXY). Historically, big bull-runs occurred when the DXY is in a downtrend.
Now looking at this chart on a monthly timeframe is can be stated that the DXY broke out of a 30yr downtrend from 2015 onwards. Quite a significant event one could argue.
We all know, Bitcoin came into existence, somewhere in January of 2009. Ever since, on a macro level, the DXY has been in uptrend. This can be supported by the fact the IMF and FED have been vigorously printing money in avoidance of a macro economic recession. Purchasing power has been in steep decline, because these inflative events tend to end up in the pockets of those who already have a considerable amount in them.
Apart for any further socio-economical opinion, in the chart are a few findings I wish to share.
(Green areas are the approximate historical bull-runs and the current one (thus far). Generally within these areas the DXY was trending down. More than not with some volatility, which can be found in most mid-cycle retracements.)
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In the periods where the DXY makes a move up, you can see Bitcoin (like all other crypto/digital assets and stocks too) trend down. In most higher timeframe events, anywhere between -75% and -85%. Currently, we are around -35%. With what might potentially come the end number would be around the 20K level.
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Also historically, whenever Bitcoin lost support of the 50W Moving Average, it came down to test the 200W MA for support (around $20K too), where it also always bottomed out. This could be the accumulation event that would make the difference on the next leg up.
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On this rally of the past two week, all we did was test the 200D MA, which we lost support of end of December of 2021. We got rejected, couldn't hold the $44K -$44.5K as support (also here was the bull market support band we shot above briefly around the 27th of March). Currently we are experiencing a possible bounce off of the uptrend line (low to mid $39K).
Big question now is. What will happend next?
Will we recapture some support levels or will we get another rejection before we can find some consolidation around the $44K-$45K price levels?
Watch your step out there. Anything can happend and anything will happen. As always.
Thanks for time and wish you a very pleasant day.