Morning Update: ES Futures Remain Deadlocked in a Zone

Each time I look for ES Futures to reconcile lower, we move to the high end of the range we have been deadlocked in since 3rd week of December. Suffice to say we have no reconciliation up or down despite the 2-3% rally on Friday. I maintain my perspective that this long drawn out overlapping pattern will reconcile itself lower. But I am not interested in moving back to the low end of the consolidation area.

I need to see a breach of 3788.

To the degree we do not breach 3788 and eventually move impulsively higher (which is not my primary expectation) I may be forced to consider the larger B wave concluded at 3788 and we're now on our way to 4300. That would make this consolidation area a leading diagonal to start the trend higher in a C wave.

The main reason I do not believe this to be the case is the cash index tagged the 1.0 Fib Extension and where A=C. As you can see from the below we do not have such a drawn out overlapping pattern. We have what appears to be a clean ABC and right into the 1.0. Granted, we could break out and continue higher...but I'm having a hard time seeing that happen right now.

Lets see what clues todays session brings us.

Best to all,

Chris