In my weekend update I outlined the below.
“However, my primary expectation is minor (wave 3 of a) completed on Friday at the 3855 level and now we’re carving out our minor wave 4. If my primary micro count is what is playing out then wave 3 extended to almost the 1.618% Fib support area . Therefore, I would expect the corrective retracement to stay slightly lower than the 1.0 Fib area at 3940. From there we should expect one more decline potentially below 3830 to right around the 3800 level...slightly above the 2.0.”
Since we came into the area of right above the 2.0 because of extensions I can draw a reasonable conclusion that the a-wave has bottomed. The pattern appears full and therefore, it is my expectation we will now retrace some of the losses incurred over the last several days as per the below micro chart. This retracement pathway outlines an IDEAL RETRACEMENT. There's no guarantees we will get an ideal retracement...but on a minimal pathway I would expect the .382 area of 3940-3950 to hit.
www.tradingview.com/...LG01w8b-ES-12-20-22/
Lastly, on the 4-hour main chart in the post you can see MACD is now lower than at the 3502 bottom in October. Hidden Bullish Divergence simply adds to the notion that prices could reverse soon. If you plan to buy for the b-wave retracement, I would watch or stop out at 3794 if you want to give this some room, or last night's LOD at 3803.50. Buying this pattern outright should only be done with a disciplined risk management plan.
Best to all,
Chris
“However, my primary expectation is minor (wave 3 of a) completed on Friday at the 3855 level and now we’re carving out our minor wave 4. If my primary micro count is what is playing out then wave 3 extended to almost the 1.618% Fib support area . Therefore, I would expect the corrective retracement to stay slightly lower than the 1.0 Fib area at 3940. From there we should expect one more decline potentially below 3830 to right around the 3800 level...slightly above the 2.0.”
Since we came into the area of right above the 2.0 because of extensions I can draw a reasonable conclusion that the a-wave has bottomed. The pattern appears full and therefore, it is my expectation we will now retrace some of the losses incurred over the last several days as per the below micro chart. This retracement pathway outlines an IDEAL RETRACEMENT. There's no guarantees we will get an ideal retracement...but on a minimal pathway I would expect the .382 area of 3940-3950 to hit.
www.tradingview.com/...LG01w8b-ES-12-20-22/
Lastly, on the 4-hour main chart in the post you can see MACD is now lower than at the 3502 bottom in October. Hidden Bullish Divergence simply adds to the notion that prices could reverse soon. If you plan to buy for the b-wave retracement, I would watch or stop out at 3794 if you want to give this some room, or last night's LOD at 3803.50. Buying this pattern outright should only be done with a disciplined risk management plan.
Best to all,
Chris
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