Morning Update: To break-out or break-down that is the question

Last night I decided to look at this chart as if I was seeing it for this time. Its funny, but the first impression I got was this is NOT a chart that price is going to run away with bullishly. Many of you have heard me say that with respect to this long drawn out consolidation since the 22nd of December. Problem is we have meandered up the whole time.

But this is not new. Ever since we bottomed in October at 3502, we haven't had a decent impulsive wave in the ES. Almost every rally eventually overlapped. We have been in a choppy market ever since. I hope to gain some clarity shortly.

www.tradingview.com/...LM-ES-Micro-1-11-23/

On the micro chart above, we have topped in Black "b" or with one more poke into the target box we will top. If we come up short of the target box we still have 1-2 pointing down in the black count. In the purple count we should head lower for our wave 2 of C that is ultimately headed to the 4300 area. So you understand there are many potential outcomes to consider...but in the very short term it appears both counts point lower. If we get a push up to the 3985 to 4000 area, I may take an outright short and close towards the wave 2 target box in purple. If I do this trade I will post a "trade alert".

Lets see what clues, or lack of, we get today.

Best to all,

Chris