3 Possible Outcomes for S&P 500 futures by ThinkingAntsOk
Today we are going to explain the 3 different scenarios we have for E-MINI S&P 500 futures
First, let's analyze the Daily chart. Main Items we can see there:
a)Price is inside an Expanding Triangle, this type of structures are considered continuation patterns after the 5 waves inside are complete, now we have A/B/C/D and E is remaining, so by Elliott Wave Theory we should expect a Bearish Movement, towards the lower trendline of this structure
b)Price is against the 2 previous historical maximums, This zone is a major Supply zone, if price cant surpass this area, we would have a Triple Top pattern (Reversal Structure)
c)On MACD we can see a Bearish Divergence on the previous Higher Highs, that's show weakness of the current bullish movement.
Now let's take a look to the Global Context, Since 1st of May E-MINI S&P 500 futures developed a bearish movement, and one of the main reasons that trigger this -7% was the trade war with China, regarding that topic, nothing changed at all, all the opposite, the United States escalated the conflict by applying tariffs to China, and take really aggressive actions over Huawei. However, now we observe a full recovery of price with a situation that is far from finished. and is really difficult to explain this optimism on the market, based on the current global situation. On Wednesday China and the USA will proceed with trade talks on Japan G-20. We think that the final output of that meeting will have some repercussion on the Index, Bullish or Bearish.
Weekly Chart:
With all the previous Items already explained, let's see the 3 possible scenarios:
1)Price cant surpass the current Triple top pattern, and the beginning of a bearish movement starts again with similar behavior of the previous Down movements observed on FEBRUARY 2018 / OCTOBER 2018 / MAY 2019
2)Price keeps rising until finds resistance on the higher trendline of the Expanding triangle after that D wave of Elliott Wave theory is completed and a bearish movement starts again with the same characteristic of FEBRUARY 2018 / OCTOBER 2018 / MAY 2019
3)Price surpass the higher trendline of the expanding triangle and find resistance on the weekly ascending channel ( you can see it better on the previous image) if this scenario happens, the Idea of the Expanding Triangle will be discarded and now price can make a correction over there or even surpass it, However we think that this scenario is the most unlikely because that would mean that 3 Major resistances zones have been broken without correction, and using Technical Analysis us our forecast tool, that would be an extremely rare behavior.
First, let's analyze the Daily chart. Main Items we can see there:
a)Price is inside an Expanding Triangle, this type of structures are considered continuation patterns after the 5 waves inside are complete, now we have A/B/C/D and E is remaining, so by Elliott Wave Theory we should expect a Bearish Movement, towards the lower trendline of this structure
b)Price is against the 2 previous historical maximums, This zone is a major Supply zone, if price cant surpass this area, we would have a Triple Top pattern (Reversal Structure)
c)On MACD we can see a Bearish Divergence on the previous Higher Highs, that's show weakness of the current bullish movement.
Now let's take a look to the Global Context, Since 1st of May E-MINI S&P 500 futures developed a bearish movement, and one of the main reasons that trigger this -7% was the trade war with China, regarding that topic, nothing changed at all, all the opposite, the United States escalated the conflict by applying tariffs to China, and take really aggressive actions over Huawei. However, now we observe a full recovery of price with a situation that is far from finished. and is really difficult to explain this optimism on the market, based on the current global situation. On Wednesday China and the USA will proceed with trade talks on Japan G-20. We think that the final output of that meeting will have some repercussion on the Index, Bullish or Bearish.
Weekly Chart:
With all the previous Items already explained, let's see the 3 possible scenarios:
1)Price cant surpass the current Triple top pattern, and the beginning of a bearish movement starts again with similar behavior of the previous Down movements observed on FEBRUARY 2018 / OCTOBER 2018 / MAY 2019
2)Price keeps rising until finds resistance on the higher trendline of the Expanding triangle after that D wave of Elliott Wave theory is completed and a bearish movement starts again with the same characteristic of FEBRUARY 2018 / OCTOBER 2018 / MAY 2019
3)Price surpass the higher trendline of the expanding triangle and find resistance on the weekly ascending channel ( you can see it better on the previous image) if this scenario happens, the Idea of the Expanding Triangle will be discarded and now price can make a correction over there or even surpass it, However we think that this scenario is the most unlikely because that would mean that 3 Major resistances zones have been broken without correction, and using Technical Analysis us our forecast tool, that would be an extremely rare behavior.
