In the overnight session of the ES Futures it appeared we would complete primary 3 down in the low to mid 3500 level. The ideal point I was looking for a primary wave 3 to end would be either 3555 to 3515 to even as low as 3495. When price bottomed at 3571 and subsequently rallied I though this may be a very large 1-2, i-ii, and we could extend to the lower expected areas. That was invalidated when the ES traded above 3630 but then to trade to 3711 was not expected.
The only way I can reconcile this move is the below chart. Actually if this pattern holds it fits really well. From the bottom of sub wave III up is 5 waves. The decline in the overnight session is 3 waves to 3571 and the rally today was 5 waves. This could be considered a WXY, but I'm not a fan of that labeling so as a 5,3,5 (if concluded) I'm labeling it an ABC to complete sub wave IV. The 1.0 of the "ab" portion equals a c wave to 3711 and that's exactly where price was stopped. Not to mention there was a lot of micro fib confluence there as you can see as well.
www.tradingview.com/...Es-ES-Micro-10-3-22/
This count is shaky until proven to be correct. That happens if we decline in primary wave 3 and breach 3571 in the next day or two. If not, this could possibly just be an "a" wave and higher levels to come after a retrace lower to the 3602-3630 level. If we can get below 3602 then it's likely we're in primary 3 down to the low 3500 level.
Today I sold 5 contracts of the October EOM 3950 calls at $18.75. I plan to hold these till expiration and will act as a hedge for the put sale I plan to do in wave 5. If you plan on following the 80% trade this area is attractive to sell a short dated call that is way out of the money.
Best to all,
Chris
The only way I can reconcile this move is the below chart. Actually if this pattern holds it fits really well. From the bottom of sub wave III up is 5 waves. The decline in the overnight session is 3 waves to 3571 and the rally today was 5 waves. This could be considered a WXY, but I'm not a fan of that labeling so as a 5,3,5 (if concluded) I'm labeling it an ABC to complete sub wave IV. The 1.0 of the "ab" portion equals a c wave to 3711 and that's exactly where price was stopped. Not to mention there was a lot of micro fib confluence there as you can see as well.
www.tradingview.com/...Es-ES-Micro-10-3-22/
This count is shaky until proven to be correct. That happens if we decline in primary wave 3 and breach 3571 in the next day or two. If not, this could possibly just be an "a" wave and higher levels to come after a retrace lower to the 3602-3630 level. If we can get below 3602 then it's likely we're in primary 3 down to the low 3500 level.
Today I sold 5 contracts of the October EOM 3950 calls at $18.75. I plan to hold these till expiration and will act as a hedge for the put sale I plan to do in wave 5. If you plan on following the 80% trade this area is attractive to sell a short dated call that is way out of the money.
Best to all,
Chris
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