A very volatile week as expected with CPI 8.2% print causing whipsaw action - melt down, squeeze up, sell off ... so now what ?
Well with :
- The short trade being over crowded by retail
- Institutional inflows
- The recent down leg and currently being "in the hole"
- Technical support
-Mean reversion to 100WMA (blue line)
-Record number of long puts
-CPI behind us and pretty in line with expectations (didn't drastically increase)
I'd say aside from a complete crash - which I just don't see happening IMO - THE PAIN TRADE IS UP ... and think in the next two weeks we see a move to 4100 and am positioned
Contrarian as it may seem, listen I'm not saying we don't go lower ... eventually... I'm just saying sellers are getting exhausted and don't think we go much lower in this hole ...i.e. Risk vs. Return favors the LONG
And Fortune favors the bold ;)
Cheers -
Frisco
Well with :
- The short trade being over crowded by retail
- Institutional inflows
- The recent down leg and currently being "in the hole"
- Technical support
-Mean reversion to 100WMA (blue line)
-Record number of long puts
-CPI behind us and pretty in line with expectations (didn't drastically increase)
I'd say aside from a complete crash - which I just don't see happening IMO - THE PAIN TRADE IS UP ... and think in the next two weeks we see a move to 4100 and am positioned
Contrarian as it may seem, listen I'm not saying we don't go lower ... eventually... I'm just saying sellers are getting exhausted and don't think we go much lower in this hole ...i.e. Risk vs. Return favors the LONG
And Fortune favors the bold ;)
Cheers -
Frisco