ES Analysis and potential (For Bab75)
Currently, the support channel is under pressure of being breached. This is a critical level and we need to watch this move because it could prompt a trend reversal. Additionally, any deep retracement followed by a move higher (back into the channel) could be viewed positively for the markets.
The circles on the chart are what I call Tesla Vibration Theory. They are based on a concept proposed by Nikola Tesla that all things (even price) operates on a frequency. Understanding that frequency and being able to identify key frequency levels can sometimes lead to a better understanding of what may happen in the future.
Currently, we are looking as price nearing a major frequency level. Thus, how price reacts near this level is critical. Should price continue to hold within this trend channel and ignore the frequency point, then I would argue that support is strong and the market will likely move higher. If the market price continues below the trend channel, we will likely see an *shoulder" setup within the next few weeks. This would be a strong indication that the market is experiencing weakness and traders would be wise to protect open long positions.
I've drawn lines on the chart indicating what I believe FAILURE would look like. But, at this time, recently testing the lower trend channel with no major recent drawdowns, we MUST watch the market price for signs of CONFLUENCE (confirmation). Price dictates where it wants to go (always attempting to reach new higher highs or lower lows). But we have to be aware that price, while attempting to find these new highs/lows, will often waffle while attempting to identify new trends. Once of the first signs of failure (failure to continue to move higher) will be a new price low being established. So watch for that.
In the mean time, my analysis says we are at the early stages of "caution" in the markets. Wise traders would likely prepare for some level of protection while understanding that the markets could resume a strong upside trend (maybe). My assumption is that geopolitical and economic facets will quickly come into play over the next 6 months. My analysis could change weekly. So this is not SET IN STONE. It is a matter of reacting to price as price tells us what to expect in the future.
Hope this helps?