I have no idea where the phrase from "Hero to GOAT" came from. But I know it means...
"that by his actions a person has in short order shifted from success to failure, with a concomitant move from praise to blame".
Now I used the Google Machine to post that definition so some of you won't confuse GOAT with a Tom Brady reference...."Greatest of all Time".
GOAT is this sense is a negative connotation. Also, forgive the use of Hero...its just a saying:)You get my meaning...lol.
I've been posting on Trading View now for a year. In that timeframe I have posted almost 600 times about various securities I track. I try to provide my followers and new readers with detailed analysis and context. I am NO HERO...nor do I consider myself a GOAT of any sort. But I do consider myself a student of patterns, trader sentiment, and ultimately Elliott Wave Analysis.
On 4 previous occasions I have done these posts I loosely refer to as "thought experiments". These posts are where I detail what will happen in the markets the next day. Usually these posts will revolve around some sort of news or event that may invoke volatility. The entire point of the thought experiments were never to brag. They certainly were not to say I have a higher intellect or the fact that I practice magic, or levitate...lol. They were designed to be thought provoking. Does news or events move price, or are they simply catalysts that fulfill on a pattern that has been in the making prior to the announcement of news or events. I'm in the camp that news or events do not matter. I believe when you consider all the participants in a large market like the SP500, the range of knowledge across the vast amount of participants dictate that good, bad or indifferent news leaks, is known prior, is anticipated or forecasted. These traders show us how prices will react in advance with the patterns of buys and sells on a chart. But I acknowledge is almost an impossible debate to win. Most people see the aftermath of news or events and how price reacts instantaneously and deem it to be cause and affect. It's hard to argue against that when the visual picture countering that argument is so stark. Hence the reason why I put myself out there. This is a topic for traders to continue to debate. Its a valid topic and therefore I expose myself to comments of ridicule if these thought experiments of mine, that I share with you, blow up in my face. I'll let my followers be the final arbiter on whether I am right or wrong...but suffice to say, I'm sure my older followers would agree I'm 4 for 4 so far.
#5: My thought experiment for todays trading day
I shared the jest of my thought process last night but I can dial it in a little more this morning. As of right now, price is in my target box. Once the CPI report is announced I believe price will spike in the ES. Now...don't freak out...Price should not spike higher than 4097. That 100 points away from where we are as of the posting of my morning update. 4097 would represent an outlier. I do not place a high probability on that, but these spikes rarely are based on anything else but emotion. Nonetheless, price should not breach 4097. But I would more so expect price to spike to the 4030 to 4050 area. Price will should be around the 4010-4030 when the cash market opens at 930am. Price will stay elevated during the first hour of cash market trading. Price will spend the rest of the day moving down and we stand a decent chance of closing red on the day or in the area of flat.
My trade plan for today is to add to a small short ES call position I initiated yesterday afternoon. Ultimately I am looking for price to return to the area of a breach of 3788 in the coming days or weeks...hence my short call trade thesis. I'll update todays price action this evening...and I'll be mentally prepared (with bourbon) to take my medicine in the comments section.
Let's see what opportunities today brings us.
Best to all,
Chris
"that by his actions a person has in short order shifted from success to failure, with a concomitant move from praise to blame".
Now I used the Google Machine to post that definition so some of you won't confuse GOAT with a Tom Brady reference...."Greatest of all Time".
GOAT is this sense is a negative connotation. Also, forgive the use of Hero...its just a saying:)You get my meaning...lol.
I've been posting on Trading View now for a year. In that timeframe I have posted almost 600 times about various securities I track. I try to provide my followers and new readers with detailed analysis and context. I am NO HERO...nor do I consider myself a GOAT of any sort. But I do consider myself a student of patterns, trader sentiment, and ultimately Elliott Wave Analysis.
On 4 previous occasions I have done these posts I loosely refer to as "thought experiments". These posts are where I detail what will happen in the markets the next day. Usually these posts will revolve around some sort of news or event that may invoke volatility. The entire point of the thought experiments were never to brag. They certainly were not to say I have a higher intellect or the fact that I practice magic, or levitate...lol. They were designed to be thought provoking. Does news or events move price, or are they simply catalysts that fulfill on a pattern that has been in the making prior to the announcement of news or events. I'm in the camp that news or events do not matter. I believe when you consider all the participants in a large market like the SP500, the range of knowledge across the vast amount of participants dictate that good, bad or indifferent news leaks, is known prior, is anticipated or forecasted. These traders show us how prices will react in advance with the patterns of buys and sells on a chart. But I acknowledge is almost an impossible debate to win. Most people see the aftermath of news or events and how price reacts instantaneously and deem it to be cause and affect. It's hard to argue against that when the visual picture countering that argument is so stark. Hence the reason why I put myself out there. This is a topic for traders to continue to debate. Its a valid topic and therefore I expose myself to comments of ridicule if these thought experiments of mine, that I share with you, blow up in my face. I'll let my followers be the final arbiter on whether I am right or wrong...but suffice to say, I'm sure my older followers would agree I'm 4 for 4 so far.
#5: My thought experiment for todays trading day
I shared the jest of my thought process last night but I can dial it in a little more this morning. As of right now, price is in my target box. Once the CPI report is announced I believe price will spike in the ES. Now...don't freak out...Price should not spike higher than 4097. That 100 points away from where we are as of the posting of my morning update. 4097 would represent an outlier. I do not place a high probability on that, but these spikes rarely are based on anything else but emotion. Nonetheless, price should not breach 4097. But I would more so expect price to spike to the 4030 to 4050 area. Price will should be around the 4010-4030 when the cash market opens at 930am. Price will stay elevated during the first hour of cash market trading. Price will spend the rest of the day moving down and we stand a decent chance of closing red on the day or in the area of flat.
My trade plan for today is to add to a small short ES call position I initiated yesterday afternoon. Ultimately I am looking for price to return to the area of a breach of 3788 in the coming days or weeks...hence my short call trade thesis. I'll update todays price action this evening...and I'll be mentally prepared (with bourbon) to take my medicine in the comments section.
Let's see what opportunities today brings us.
Best to all,
Chris
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