ETHEREUM Crucial bullish test as in 2017. Will the Dollar help?

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is once again testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Being still on a downtrend but since mid-June on Higher Lows, this undoubtedly draws comparisons with the 2016 Bear Cycle. As you see ETH made Higher Lows in December 2016 and that was the bottom of that Bear Cycle as an early January 2017 1D MA200 Double Test resulted in a break-out and a parabolic rally that ushered the new Bull Cycle.

It is interesting that both Bear Cycles resembled a Head and Shoulders pattern (H&S) before breaking to the Higher Lows bottom. This analysis has one extra but key element, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). During both Bear Cycles of Ethereum, the DXY (green trend-line) has been rising aggressively. What really helped ETH break above its 1D MA200 in January 2017 was the strong bearish reversal on the DXY, as they are negatively correlated.

The DXY has been pulling back on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (Channel Down) since late September. Can this pull-back be sustainable and evolve into a strong correction? If yes, we can expect Ethereum to break above the 1D MA200 and officially start its new Bull Cycle.




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