Veejahbee

EURNZD SEEMS TO BE READY FOR A MASSIVE DECLINE

Short
FX:EURNZD   Euro / New Zealand Dollar
EURNZD has been in recovery mode for the past 10 months. The pair took off from 1.63323 in December 2018 low and climbed to as high as 1.76993 in October 2019.

The daily chart above puts EURNZD's entire 2-month sell-off in 2018 and the 10-months recovery in an Elliott Wave context. The pair’s decline can easily be seen as a five-wave impulse. The pattern is labeled 1-2-3-4-5, wave 3 is the longest among the three impulse waves.

The recovery looks like a textbook W-X-Y-X-Z triple three corrections. Waves W unfolded as an expanded flat pattern while wave X, Y, X, and Z can both be labeled as simple (a)-(b)-(c) zigzags.

Once a correction is over, the larger trend resumes. Here, a sharp selloff from 1.79282 in October 2018 precedes the above-shown corrective recovery, so the larger trend is down. Also, note how the resistance level , wedge trend line , and 78.6% Fibonacci level discouraged the bulls in wave Z. This is another indication that the entire 5-3 wave cycle is complete. If this count is correct, last week's bearish reversal is the start of a major plunge, whose targets lie beneath 1.63323 in the long term.

In my opinion, selling the rallies is a viable strategy as long as EURNZD trades below 1.76993 invalidation level. Instead of giving in to complacency, the bulls should take last week’s bearish reversal very seriously.

Thanks for Reading!
Veejahbee

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