EURUSD | Will a new rate hike arrive in September?

The EUR/USD exchange rate showed a recovery above 1.0750, after touching a daily low near 1.0730 during the American session. This movement was influenced by data from the United States, which indicated an increase in producer inflation in January, higher than expected, and a marginal improvement in consumer confidence in early February. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD remains in a consolidation phase above 1.0750 on Friday, after closing positively in the two previous days.
Mixed releases of macroeconomic data from the United States and a positive change in risk sentiment made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to maintain its position, allowing the EUR/USD to extend its recovery. Retail sales in the United States fell by 0.8% on a monthly basis in January, while weekly unemployment claims dropped to 212,000 from 220,000. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in a close to 70% probability that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave interest rates unchanged at the next two monetary policy meetings. Additionally, the euro (EUR) showed a retracement after hitting a new two-day high, as a measure of producer inflation in the United States (US) suggests that the work of the United States Federal Reserve is not yet finished. The EUR/USD fluctuated around the range 1.0770-1.0730 after the PPI data, then stabilizing at current exchange rates. Furthermore, on the European Central Bank front, there was an observation by a member of the Executive Board, Isabel Schnabel, about the need for a restrictive monetary policy, given concerns about a possible inflation rebound. Analyzing an H4 chart, it is evident that the price is in a reversal zone (previous demand zone), within a downtrend channel, I have identified a possible turning point at the level of 1.0824 where the price could rotate and reverse its route towards the level of 1.0650 and the level of 1.0520, the November 2023 minimum. We will see how the price will react during the week and how the operators' sentiment towards the Fed will be. I wish everyone a good weekend, regards Nicola.