Triangle busted

FX:GER30   DAX Index
Well, just when we proclaimed that the triangle played out and it broke above, the market pulled a fast one and busted the pattern. I have to admit it was very sneaky to make it look like a triangle up until the last moment.. I guess I should've been more suspicious of the (presumed) very short e wave...

Anyway, given the subsequent strong decline, we now know that it was not a triangle, although is sure looked like one. My best guess at this moment is that it was a flat a-b-c for a B, while the fact that the 3rd wave of C up paused close to the confluence of the TL was just something the market used to head-fake everyone and pull the rug while all are looking up. Quite devilish, I have to say.

We now have a complete a-b-c up. Given that we slightly tagged just above the 50% retrace of the entire wave, this bounce could very well be over and we should take out the lows. That doesn't mean we crash directly, but I would sell any bounces now as opposed to buy the dips.

The projections at mcm did show weakness going into this week, while ES shows weakness also into next week. The daily signals were actually very good, and one pin pointed the opening top.

If you have any questions or want to learn more about mcm analysis, please contact me anytime at

Good luck to your trading!
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