TNasr
Long

GOLD: A Macro Elliot Wave Analysis

AMEX:GLD   SPDR GOLD TRUST GOLD SHARES NPV
Disclaimer(s): The green (0) viewable in the bottom left of the chart would have been in 2005 but because of the
scope of this graph it coincides with 2010
By the same token the green (3) should be several years forward but coincides with 2019, again b/c
of the scope of the graph
This is my first attempt at applying Elliot Wave analysis to an asset class (it applies to all) but draws
on research and expert opinions

Per Elliot Wave theory I am attempting to identify 2 things, The first is what appears to be a wave 2 A-B-C (in blue) corrective pattern (the bulk of the graph ) of what will be a years long SuperCycle (second only to a Grand SuperCycle in time frame). The second visual identification is the initial stages of what I project to be a bullish path forward; wave 3. Per rules of EW operative counts wave 2 must be at least 50% of wave 1. From trough to peak (2005Q2 - 2011Q3) GLD went from $42 to 183, an increase of 141, 1/2 of which is 70.5. Correspondingly from peak to trough (2011Q3 - 2015Q4) gold decreased from $183 to 100; as 83>70.5 the minimum 50% magnitude retracement of wave 1 was met in what convincingly appears to have been wave 2, we may now be embarking on wave 3 which would be the beginning of a massive secular bull run.

Note that Elliot Wave analysis is fractal on nature and applies to roughly 9 different time frames that ranges from minutes to Millenial. I am looking at a long time frame, hence a SuperCycle with 5 waves, 1, 3, and 5 up and 2 & 4 down. The second part of the graph is the potential path gold may take on its way to completion of wave 3; several years away in an A-B-C-D-E formation (in orange) which represents an intrawave uptrend, B, C, D & E are beyond the scope of this graph. A, C, and E are waves up; B & D down, all representing the course of wave 3 in the grand scheme.

Per the Fibonacci levels ascertained from the A-B-C corrective pattern of wave 2 we see that GLD (which I will not invest in but use a method to track golds price action) has been oscillating around the 0.236 level which switches from support to resistance. So long as we do not see a sustained break below 117 (the 0.236 equates to roughly 120) there is a set up in play for a powerful rally to the orange A representing the first step of the A-B-C-D-E bullish formation alluded to in the preceding paragraph.

The price target in this case would be roughly 150 which equates to the 0.618 Fibonacci line. Remember that impulsive wave 3s are very powerful and steep to the upside (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest), this wave usually coincides with a mass recognition that a new trend in any given asset class is underway. Note that per RSI and the Elliot Wave Oscillator there seems to be a years long consolidation underway. screaming entry point would be if one, or both indicators break resistance lines to the upside. The colored shaded projection visible towards the right of the graph could only be the beginning of a massive rally should current levels (grey shaded rectangle connected to the colored projection) roughly hold and we see a break to the upside. This could happen this year, only time will tell...
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