As Rektember draws to a close
The seasonal's actually point up for Q4
Santa Rallies are real market phenomenons!
But is this time is different? Could we have actually topped??
Compared to the tech wreck of 2000
You can see the initial drawdown was around minus 40% from the top
We then got a mini bull run, a recovery wave.
About the same 40% in an upward reversal move.
The 2000 downdraft and recovery occurred over a shorter time frame than what has transpired so far today..
The current market structure has more volume / price action that has taken place below current prices.. This in theory should provide more support.
The market was caught off guard regarding the Fed wanting to stay higher for longer
(I'm not sure why!)
... and seemed to have been pricing more aggressive rate cuts sooner in 2024
This could cause a repricing of risk and expectations.
Chamath Palihapitiya has told his CEO's to have adequate cash into 2025, but has revised his thinking and expects they need to have enough cash to get them through to 2026!
If more captains of industry come around to this way of thinking... the ways to generate cash on hand is to withdraw from spending and possibly laying off extra capacity in the workplace!
You see how this thinking feeds on itself and into the broader economy...
If we look back in a few years time and 2022 did prove itself to be the manic top... and there is plenty of evidence it was, in terms of sentiment and broad retail involvement (dog coins , meme stocks, NVIDIA at PE way north of 100)
WE shouldn't be too surprised!
The seasonal's actually point up for Q4
Santa Rallies are real market phenomenons!
But is this time is different? Could we have actually topped??
Compared to the tech wreck of 2000
You can see the initial drawdown was around minus 40% from the top
We then got a mini bull run, a recovery wave.
About the same 40% in an upward reversal move.
The 2000 downdraft and recovery occurred over a shorter time frame than what has transpired so far today..
The current market structure has more volume / price action that has taken place below current prices.. This in theory should provide more support.
The market was caught off guard regarding the Fed wanting to stay higher for longer
(I'm not sure why!)
... and seemed to have been pricing more aggressive rate cuts sooner in 2024
This could cause a repricing of risk and expectations.
Chamath Palihapitiya has told his CEO's to have adequate cash into 2025, but has revised his thinking and expects they need to have enough cash to get them through to 2026!
If more captains of industry come around to this way of thinking... the ways to generate cash on hand is to withdraw from spending and possibly laying off extra capacity in the workplace!
You see how this thinking feeds on itself and into the broader economy...
If we look back in a few years time and 2022 did prove itself to be the manic top... and there is plenty of evidence it was, in terms of sentiment and broad retail involvement (dog coins , meme stocks, NVIDIA at PE way north of 100)
WE shouldn't be too surprised!