THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE
Publishing here the history of economics effect on stock market
I took the last couple of crisis (bubble at 2000 and the real estate crisis on 2008) and added the bellow charts
- Inflation
- Interest
- Unemployment
Once thing is clear- each time inflation went up- The fed increased the intersect rate and unemployment went down to the lowest points of the decade or more
- When unemployment reached the bottom, we were getting towards the top of the market (on 2008) or in the middle of the fall down (2001)
- UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NEVER REACHED THE BOTTOM WHEN THE CRISIS WAS OVER OR DURRNING THE UPTREND ON THE ABOVE CRISIS
-When Inflation rates got to the pick level - the market was either still climing or in the begining of the fall
- INFLATION RATES NEVER PICKED OR STAYED HIGH FOR A LONG TIME WHILE THE MARKET BOTTOMED
- THE PRIOD OF AT LEAAST 7 MONTHS WE HAD THE HIGH INTRESET RATE AT THEIR PICK
- AND IT HAPPENED WHILE THE MARKETS WERE CRASHING
THE SIGANL FOR THE BOTTOM USUALLY CAME WHEN THE INFALTION CAME TO IT'S LOWEST POINT
- DRAMATIC MOVES OF THE INFLATION GOING DOWN - WERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CRASH AND TOWARDS THE END WHEN WE HIT THE BOTTOM
- Were are we now 4-2023???
In My Opinion:
- We are in the beginning of the big crash, we are going to sink hard to new low level, we will visit the highest levels of the market before the CORONA (February 2020)
- I really think we will have a hard recession which will take 5-7 years or more to get back to the tops of the ETFs (QQQ/ SPY etc...)
We are being fouled at the moment the the bottom already happened, as nothing is shiny in the near/ far furture
- AAPL IS ONLY 9% FROM IT'S ATH (MAKE SENCE??) not to me
- VIX IN ITS LOWEST FOR THE PAST 1+ YEAR (USUALLY THE MARKET WILL PUT ALL TO SLEEP BEFORE THEY DROP THE KNIFES)
- LAYOFF SEASON HAS BEGAN AT THE BIG COMANIES
- FED DECLEARED A SOFT RECESSION (WHEN THEY SAY SOFT IT'S THE SAME AS WHEN THEY SAID TRANSITORY INFLATION - PLEASE REMEMBER !!!
- INTRESET RATE?? NEXT 0.25 IS COMING IN 2 WEEKS
- WHAT IS THE CATALIST FOR THE MARKET TO GO HIGH??
NOTHING (In My Opinion)
THIS IS JUST A THOUGHT OF SOMEONE WHO LOOKS AT THE MARKET FROM A BEAR POINT OF VIEW- NO ADVISE