Jnug to Gold "More chop ahead before a bigger drop"
Before I get into it, I just wanted to say, isn't is funny how this dumped? Remember how I was saying that big green volume spikes have usually meant that Jnug was at or very near a top. Its not 100% that way but its like 95% of the time. Good thing to remember.
So I have been really trying to find the cycles for Jnug. And I am bummed to say that I did not find it in time for the last bottom last month at just under $15. I wish I had made the adjustment. Oh well. I did not sell and have not lost money. So if my cycles are about right, then I think we are almost finished with the cycle for Jnug. I really do not feel that we are going to get too much more of a drop before a short term pop and then deeper drop. Maybe a couple more days down. The reason it partly to do with gold. This is only going to be a half cycle downturn for gold and that does not last long. So I have thought that Jnug may very likely follow the blue arrows. If we are lucky then we drop and follow the red arrow. There are a lot of potential channels that we could be trading in and it is hard to figure out which one we are in. But since I am expecting gold to make another try at a breakout, and fail, then I am expecting Jnug to also pop a little. Speaking of gold trying to breakout again. Gold is really running out of time for this Daily cycle to breakout. If it does not do it in the next week or two then it will probably drop pretty hard. So as far as gold, I cant see this half cycle low reaching past the 1240 mark, which is also where the 50 week MA is. Then I am expecting that pop. BUT, if it fails to breakout and if we drop to the bottom of that wedge, then that would indeed be a lower low, and I would be willing to bet that gold tanks hard. We have a double head and shoulders pattern that could play out. And if that plays out then I would expect the much larger head and shoulders to almost certainly play out. See the gold chart below
I also cant get out of my head the fact that the 50 week MA is so so so close to crossing below the 200 weekly MA. Yep, that would do it. It seems like this next two weeks or so is going to tell us the future for gold. Let us also not forget that there is another Fed meeting on September 20th and with the NFP and Unemployment doing so well, I can see that meeting starting to weigh on gold in a few weeks. I do not expect the Fed to raise rates in September and so I think we will get the same reaction out of gold that we just got. A short term rally for a few days and then a drop. If in mid to late September, price is where my arrows are, then there is yet another super strong force that will start pulling gold down and that is the intermediate cycle wanting to make its low. I believe that after two long 6.25 months Intermediate cycles, I do not think that we are going to get a 3rd long one. I am expecting this one to be on the short side with a maximum duration of 5.5 months. I am kind of leaning more towards the 5.5 months. The reason is that 5.5 months would mark 12 months since the last yearly cycle low. (Yearly cycles run 12 - 14.5 months). So we either get a very short 4 month long ICL so that we can have another short ICL to hit the 14.5 month YCL. Or more likely IMO, we have a 5.5 month ICL and that would line up perfectly for another 12 month YCL. Just to give you an idea, ICL drops should have gold dropping for 3 - 5 weeks straight. So gold should roll over in November.
So now you can see the urgency for gold to breakout, if its going to do it. Otherwise, this ship is going to sink and take Jnug with it. And my silver chart is not helping convince me that we are in a bull market yet either since silver and gold a somewhat moving in the same direction. Gold Volitility is at an all time low. In other words, when this breaks, don't be on the wrong side of it. I hope I did not forget anything. I will update if I remember. GL.
So I have been really trying to find the cycles for Jnug. And I am bummed to say that I did not find it in time for the last bottom last month at just under $15. I wish I had made the adjustment. Oh well. I did not sell and have not lost money. So if my cycles are about right, then I think we are almost finished with the cycle for Jnug. I really do not feel that we are going to get too much more of a drop before a short term pop and then deeper drop. Maybe a couple more days down. The reason it partly to do with gold. This is only going to be a half cycle downturn for gold and that does not last long. So I have thought that Jnug may very likely follow the blue arrows. If we are lucky then we drop and follow the red arrow. There are a lot of potential channels that we could be trading in and it is hard to figure out which one we are in. But since I am expecting gold to make another try at a breakout, and fail, then I am expecting Jnug to also pop a little. Speaking of gold trying to breakout again. Gold is really running out of time for this Daily cycle to breakout. If it does not do it in the next week or two then it will probably drop pretty hard. So as far as gold, I cant see this half cycle low reaching past the 1240 mark, which is also where the 50 week MA is. Then I am expecting that pop. BUT, if it fails to breakout and if we drop to the bottom of that wedge, then that would indeed be a lower low, and I would be willing to bet that gold tanks hard. We have a double head and shoulders pattern that could play out. And if that plays out then I would expect the much larger head and shoulders to almost certainly play out. See the gold chart below
So now you can see the urgency for gold to breakout, if its going to do it. Otherwise, this ship is going to sink and take Jnug with it. And my silver chart is not helping convince me that we are in a bull market yet either since silver and gold a somewhat moving in the same direction. Gold Volitility is at an all time low. In other words, when this breaks, don't be on the wrong side of it. I hope I did not forget anything. I will update if I remember. GL.
Comment:
Kind of looks like we are starting to bounce a little bit. I was hoping for this to go down lower before the bounce but oh well. I am looking for 5 small waves down. I labeled my thoughts for those waves. I think we are probably going to fill that gap for a mini wave 2 and then drop more. GL
Comment:
I would advise caution if you want to go long. Maybe day trading only for now. Jnug is showing great weakness. The question is, who is right .....gold or miners. To better understand what I am talking about. Please refer to a recent YouTube video by " igold advisor". He sees what I see.
Comment:
In the chart above for gold, I highlighted the last few Daily cycle drops and as you can see they are just about the same with the exception of the intermediate cycle drop (which was very weak). We are just past the halfway mark for the full daily cycle and this should roll over any day now and start into its daily cycle low. The question is how much higher will it go before the rollover. So the red arrow is pointing to a small line which marks the top for the last two tops. If we break that then the small double head and shoulders pattern will appear to be invalidated. After that we would have to break through the 1300 - 1310 red zone in order for this breakout to really take off. But If Trump doesn't open his mouth anymore in the next couple of days, then I think we will not break through yet. The question at that point becomes, if we roll over and drop into the wedge again, does this apparent breakout count. There is no obvious answer yet. The reason I am saying that is because we would essentially be starting all over again with the climb out of the wedge. We will have to see. And what if somehow, Lil Kim becomes convinced that this president is not like the others (which he is not..he has balls) and he stands down...then I am sure gold will drop pretty hard. You see, the economy is doing very well and this gold run is just war fear. Fluff really.
So if we drop into a equally measured DCL, and retest that neck line, then I would play the bounce but I would not hold for a long period of time. I need to be convinced that this is not a super false breakout. I just don't trust the big banks. And right now, I don't think I have read anything even remotely bearish or even expressing caution. Everyone appears to be long. What a great time to pull the carpet. So I am saying, be cautious for this next week. If we drop from hear into a DCL then you still need to respect the smaller head and shoulders. Everything is very overbought so the slightest good NK news could be the trigger. However, if we do break that red zone next week then I will be expecting a retest of the recent downtrend line and then even I would say that gold is now bullish and in wave 3.
So if we drop into a equally measured DCL, and retest that neck line, then I would play the bounce but I would not hold for a long period of time. I need to be convinced that this is not a super false breakout. I just don't trust the big banks. And right now, I don't think I have read anything even remotely bearish or even expressing caution. Everyone appears to be long. What a great time to pull the carpet. So I am saying, be cautious for this next week. If we drop from hear into a DCL then you still need to respect the smaller head and shoulders. Everything is very overbought so the slightest good NK news could be the trigger. However, if we do break that red zone next week then I will be expecting a retest of the recent downtrend line and then even I would say that gold is now bullish and in wave 3.
Comment:
by the way Jnug has still not broken out. Just saying, be cautious.
Comment:
North Korea Fluff?!
It may be a little too early to say it but I may have been correct about this. I was trying to use the cycles to help me predict what was going to happen next. I read somewhere that a failed bullish breakout is considered very bearish. Well if we continue down like I am pretty sure we will, then that would be two failed breakouts back to back. Like I said earlier, be cautious with this breakout. More important than the price breaking out is the amount of time that the price stays above that line.
It may be a little too early to say it but I may have been correct about this. I was trying to use the cycles to help me predict what was going to happen next. I read somewhere that a failed bullish breakout is considered very bearish. Well if we continue down like I am pretty sure we will, then that would be two failed breakouts back to back. Like I said earlier, be cautious with this breakout. More important than the price breaking out is the amount of time that the price stays above that line.