Has the wheat market been forgotten? With wheat prices almost back to early February levels, right before the start of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, markets seemed to have erased all fears of a tightening wheat supply due to the conflict.

The recent selloff in wheat partially stemmed from the market belief that the situation in Ukraine is improving and that exports will be resuming. But with today’s news of missile strikes at Ukraine’s Odesa port, which serves as one of the main port for grains export, we think that the narrative for wheat is about to turn around with further fear and supply tightening on the horizon.

Looking at the chart, wheat is now sitting on a long-term resistance-turn-support level around the 850 mark. RSI recovered from deep oversold territory and is now grinding back upwards. On a shorter timeframe, we also see a falling wedge, which is seen as a bullish signal.

The combination of markets over-correcting to pre-conflict levels and bullish signals from current technical indicators provides a buying opportunity as we head into another period of uncertainty for wheat.

Entry at 842, stops at 752. Target at 1000.

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