Yep. The title says it all. I have found evidence to support what I believe is future upward price movement over the next 2 months. After many many hours of exhaustive research, I can say with 100% certainty, backed up by years and years of historical data that......IT GETS COLD IN THE WINTER! Just some light humor.
So I have two price targets for this upward move. This is not to be confused with what I think is going to happen by February (a much higher high at least $4.10), I'm talking short term...2 weeks from now before a decent pullback. The first is for Natural gas to reach the 100% measured move of "W" at $3.30, which happened in the beginning of November. There is a pretty good resistance level there as well. The 2nd price target, which is what I am hoping for and which makes a little more sense to me, is the 100% measured move of the first part of this current "Y" wave that began last week. That is the FIB that is colored purple. There is a gap to be filled there AND, a 50% typical correction for this WXY wave move would bring it down to retest the trend line and also stay within the yellow path.
As far as how this would equate to UGAZ prices.....I really don't know yet. I watch the NG chart to get an idea of when we are close to a trend change for UGAZ. I will be watching the structure on the daily to try to figure out where we are in the wave count and weather or not we are close to a warm weather reversal. GL
So I have two price targets for this upward move. This is not to be confused with what I think is going to happen by February (a much higher high at least $4.10), I'm talking short term...2 weeks from now before a decent pullback. The first is for Natural gas to reach the 100% measured move of "W" at $3.30, which happened in the beginning of November. There is a pretty good resistance level there as well. The 2nd price target, which is what I am hoping for and which makes a little more sense to me, is the 100% measured move of the first part of this current "Y" wave that began last week. That is the FIB that is colored purple. There is a gap to be filled there AND, a 50% typical correction for this WXY wave move would bring it down to retest the trend line and also stay within the yellow path.
As far as how this would equate to UGAZ prices.....I really don't know yet. I watch the NG chart to get an idea of when we are close to a trend change for UGAZ. I will be watching the structure on the daily to try to figure out where we are in the wave count and weather or not we are close to a warm weather reversal. GL
Comment:
I did not think it would do it but it looks like NG is going to fill that gap just below. SO my very short term was wrong. But I am still holding because I know it will eventually rally for at least a month.
Comment:
This is my worst trade ever. Yes there will be a winter rally but now that NG broke below the wedge line, I am questioning how low this will go and if I want to hold it or cut my losses and play another angle to make some of my money back. So I went back to see if there are any other gaps in the past that this could possibly fill and there is. I show them on the next chart. There is one just below our current price and then of course there is that red line that has been an area of strong support for a while. But way below that is another large gap. While it seems unlikely for NG to drop that much with all the snow that has dumped on parts of the nation, I suppose it could happen. If we make to the red line then I am expecting a bounce but if that bounce does not show much strength, then it may just be a set up for that large lower gap. If that is the case then we could possibly not see the winter rally begin until the middle of January. While it is very rare for the winter rally to hold off until January...it has happened.