Perma_Pig

The Most Bearish Calendar Day, Statistically Speaking

CME_MINI:NQ1!   NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures
July 21st is historically the least likely calendar day to close at a higher price than it opened.

Published in the Stock Trader's Almanac are the historical probabilities of each calendar day finishing in the green. The majority of calendar days range from 40% - 60%, and are more or less evenly distributed throughout different weeks in any given month. However, there are certain seasonally bearish or bullish weeks of the calendar year that consistently contain one or more calendar days in a row that are negative (positive),

One such week happens to be the current week, aka the week of July following the July witching session.

During this week, recent history suggests near-extreme levels of volatility when compared with the relatively quiet weeks that proceed it. Uncommonly large price swings in either direction have been seen to occur more often than not over the past 21 years.

Most stunningly, over the same 21-year study, it appears that one particular calendar stands above all others when it comes to being anomalously bearish . That day would be, drumroll, please...

The 21st of July aka tomorrow!

Across the main equity indices in the US, we have had an abysmal showing in terms of percentage positive days on July 21st since 2000:

Dow: 14.3%
S&P: 19.0%
Nasdaq: 14.3%

While I still need to cross-verify this with at least another data source before I bet the house, farm, family and kids tomorrow, it is a fact that no other calendar day is even remotely as bearish as July 21st is.

To put these probabilities in perspective, there aren't any other calendar days that are positive fewer than 30% of the time across all the major indices.

In conclusion, I'd find it amusing (unless I bet the farm, kids, etc.) if tomorrow becomes one of those irrationally bullish bounces that we've gotten used to over the past seventeen months.


-PigBetsTheFarm



TVC:NDX
TVC:SPX
TVC:DJI
TVC:RUT
AMEX:SPY
AMEX:DIA
NASDAQ:QQQ
AMEX:IWM
Trade active: Well, that was a weird day. If this continues up tomorrow, I no longer believe in statistics.

Also, the following sorta needs to happen very soon if we want a real reversal on the pattern since 2020:


Lastly, I did come up with a few perfectly squared price and time confluences for DJI and NAS earlier today, since I had nothing better to do. Will post em if I can find em.
Trade active: Here's the chart I made some time ago but edited earlier today. It is a long term DJI projection using symmetrical price/time pivots, Elliott, Neo, and (creative use of) Fibonacci.

Think we are still in Wave 4 since 2000 top and just finished the second X wave. So far, its been expanding triangle, X wave, smaller expanding triangle (2018 start, 2020 bottom end), X wave (current) and then well see a rather normal symmetrical triangle to set up the next impulse wave. This sequence roughly fractals against the 1970s triangles into the 1987 top, with 2000 top being Sypercycle III.

Ive put lots of thought into this, but this shouldnt be used for serious analysis. Its not totally possible to project that far out with accuracy, so keep that in mind:

Trade active: Hopefully my last update - looks like terminal pattern completed or has one/two swings higher, max, on the NAS.

Good luck.
Perma_Pig

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This was featured in Editors' Picks! Thanks for sharing your research and data.
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+2 Reply
Perma_Pig TradingView
@TradingView, Thanks!
+1 Reply
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@ahite227, youll be regretting that bulltard - watch your bank account drain to zero bro!
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@Perma_Pig As you can see, no statistic that mortal sees is too solid not to be broken.
You will surely remember that:
July 21, 2021 was very bullish. :-)
+6 Reply
Perma_Pig spencer03
@spencer03, yep, silly me
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uhljarrobert richardjeffrey
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