Published in the Stock Trader's Almanac are the historical probabilities of each calendar day finishing in the green. The majority of calendar days range from 40% - 60%, and are more or less evenly distributed throughout different weeks in any given month. However, there are certain seasonally or weeks of the calendar year that consistently contain one or more calendar days in a row that are negative (positive),
One such week happens to be the current week, aka the week of July following the July witching session.
During this week, recent history suggests near-extreme levels of when compared with the relatively quiet weeks that proceed it. Uncommonly large price swings in either direction have been seen to occur more often than not over the past 21 years.
Most stunningly, over the same 21-year study, it appears that one particular calendar stands above all others when it comes to being anomalously . That day would be, drumroll, please...
The 21st of July aka tomorrow!
Across the main equity indices in the US, we have had an abysmal showing in terms of percentage positive days on July 21st since 2000:
While I still need to cross-verify this with at least another data source before I bet the house, farm, family and kids tomorrow, it is a fact that no other calendar day is even remotely as as July 21st is.
To put these probabilities in perspective, there aren't any other calendar days that are positive fewer than 30% of the time across all the major indices.
In conclusion, I'd find it amusing (unless I bet the farm, kids, etc.) if tomorrow becomes one of those irrationally bounces that we've gotten used to over the past seventeen months.
Also, the following sorta needs to happen very soon if we want a real reversal on the pattern since 2020:
Lastly, I did come up with a few perfectly squared price and time confluences for DJI and NAS earlier today, since I had nothing better to do. Will post em if I can find em.
Think we are still in Wave 4 since 2000 top and just finished the second X wave. So far, its been expanding triangle, X wave, smaller expanding triangle (2018 start, 2020 bottom end), X wave (current) and then well see a rather normal symmetrical triangle to set up the next impulse wave. This sequence roughly fractals against the 1970s triangles into the 1987 top, with 2000 top being Sypercycle III.
Ive put lots of thought into this, but this shouldnt be used for serious analysis. Its not totally possible to project that far out with accuracy, so keep that in mind:
You will surely remember that:
July 21, 2021 was very bullish. :-)
what exactly is this method?
Ive been waiting patiently to become a full-time winner for years now, so please be detailed.