NaughtyPines
Short

VOLATILITY BACK IN INDEX ETF'S

NASDAQ:QQQ   POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST, SERIES 1
As a seller of premium primarily in the index ETF's SPY             , DIA             , IWM             , and QQQ             , I look to enter setups 45 DTE             when IVR             exceeds 35 (Dough 6-Mo).

Currently, all four index ETF's IVR's exceed that benchmark, with QQQ             weighing in at 82, IWM             -- 64, DIA             -- 63, and SPY             -- 54, making the selling of premium attractive. Since I am bearish on the indices, I am inclined toward 45 DTE             short call verticals with the short strike above the expected move for the expiry and the long call strike 3 strikes out from that or 45 DTE             delta neutral iron condors with similar setups on the short call side with the short put side as equal in deltas as the short call side (which results in a bearishly skewed setup).

Naturally, this volatility can bleed out of the indices rapidly and, of course, may not be present on New York             open depending on what happens with futures overnight ... .

Notes: Please note that I am referring to IVR and not IV. IVR             refers to IV "Rank", which is a relativistic measure of the underlying's current expression of IV. For example, if the IV has ranged between 0 and 20 for the past six months, and it is currently at 20, its IVR             will be 100, since the IV is at its highest point given the underlying's historic IV. Of course, you can also just look at IV and see whether it is currently at a high point .... .

Also, unless you've been buried under a rock for the past several days, you'll know that 8/7 is NFP Friday and that, regardless of the data, the market will react and that volatility will increase even more in the indices or will disappear as suddenly as it came .... .

EXAMPLE:

Sep 25 Expiry QQQ             99/102/115/118 Iron Condor
POP 70%
BE's: 101.30/115.70
Max Profit/Loss: $70/$230 per contract
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