krugman25
Long

SLV - Long Term Buy and Hold

AMEX:SLV   ISHARES SILVER TRUST ISHARES
I have purchased a large tranche of SLV to begin building up a long term position in the very beaten-up precious metals sector. I am not convinced the bottom is in quite yet but we are likely close. I have begun seeing articles about how gold/silver investing is dead and some articles go as far as saying the price of PMs will never recover. Price extremes, extreme statements in news articles, extreme positioning, and capitulation by the perma-bulls often mark the beginning of a bottom. Why I have chose silver is due to the Gold/Silver ratio now being towards the top of a century long extreme.

Let me re-iterate that PM's could continue to bottom for the next few months and correct even deeper but as a long term buy-and-hold strategy, any future price drops will offer opportunities to average down. My time horizon for this trade could be 5-10 years or longer. Once price does rebound and begins rallying, owning the stock outright will give me an opportunity to sell covered calls against it and begin generating consistent returns and lower my cost basis even further.
Comment: I bought SLV at 13.87 and ended up selling at 14.01 due to some very bearish price action. Since then there has been 2 more bearish price patterns which both followed through to lower prices and there is also a bearish price pattern currently forming, if broken, could push SLV down to 13 or lower (link to analysis below).

After the next break down I will likely jump back in, and be able to do so having avoided 1$ of loss as well as back 14c profit for a slightly improved cost-basis once I am back in.
Comment:
we are also investing a large part of our portfolio mainly in gold for long-term, your analysis is good
+1 Reply
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