TayFx

Let's Compare Some Recent Bubbles..

Short
SPX/GDP  
SPX/GDP  
Some that claim that markets are forward looking and see better things ahead. These markets saw nothing coming and ran right into disaster and now they’re simply jumping on the Fed liquidity train again, the very train that got them trapped in the first place. No lesson has been learned. How do we know that? Because the very same mistakes are again repeated and driven to new and even more historic extremes.
This proves that this is a market driven by a handful of large cap stocks. This means that we are in the midst of a very much distorted and disoriented marketplace. This is the best market a trillion in central bank intervention can buy. A distorted overvalued market completely disconnected from the fundamental picture.


21:53:03 ( UTC )
Fri Jun 12, 2020

Comments

Great info
Reply
TayFx z3m25
@z3m25, thanks
Reply
Fcking gold! What a chart.

"Because the very same mistakes are again repeated and driven to new and even more historic extremes"

Few can see it, very refreshing :)...

Reply
TayFx ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, are you short also?
+1 Reply
@TayFx, About 30% short from last week B).

After drop it's more like 35-40% short now haha.

I'm mostly just ridin the TVIX right now but dabbling in UVXY, SDOW, SPXU and SQQQ...


My model thinks the most likely outcome here is 2400 by end of June/beginning July and 2100 in August.

We'll find out soon enough!
Reply
TayFx ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, haha nice! I like it
+1 Reply
TayFx ProfitHarvest
chewck this out , this would imply yes, $500 SPX @ProfitHarvest,
+1 Reply
@TayFx, Such gold man, just beautiful :').

Data says we have a decent chance of hitting 1600 after election in a basically extended second dead cat bounce from August lows. This is the strongest low consensus point after the more immediate 2400 and 2100.

Couple people are actually making pretty fair 1000 or less calls but so much would all have to line up and go wrong for it to break under 1600 for any period of time and overcome all the cash pumps that get activated at that level.

I'm pegging 1000 or less bottom odds at getting a flush in a single hand of poker. Outside chance.

1600 somewhere between one pair and two pair odds, 25% maybe. Decent chance, too far out to really dial in yet but very realistic.
+1 Reply
TayFx ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, thanks for the comment!!
+1 Reply
TayFx ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, I'm assuming you're talking SPX?
+1 Reply
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