This proves that this is a market driven by a handful of large cap stocks. This means that we are in the midst of a very much distorted and disoriented marketplace. This is the best market a trillion in intervention can buy. A distorted overvalued market completely disconnected from the fundamental picture.
21:53:03 ( UTC )
Fri Jun 12, 2020
After drop it's more like 35-40% short now haha.
I'm mostly just ridin the TVIX right now but dabbling in UVXY, SDOW, SPXU and SQQQ...
My model thinks the most likely outcome here is 2400 by end of June/beginning July and 2100 in August.
We'll find out soon enough!
Data says we have a decent chance of hitting 1600 after election in a basically extended second dead cat bounce from August lows. This is the strongest low consensus point after the more immediate 2400 and 2100.
Couple people are actually making pretty fair 1000 or less calls but so much would all have to line up and go wrong for it to break under 1600 for any period of time and overcome all the cash pumps that get activated at that level.
I'm pegging 1000 or less bottom odds at getting a flush in a single hand of poker. Outside chance.
1600 somewhere between one pair and two pair odds, 25% maybe. Decent chance, too far out to really dial in yet but very realistic.