A possible has emerged on the S&P500 between the 2870 - 2860 region. This could lead to a significant downtrend in the coming weeks. EM problems seem to be emerging themselves which could rattle markets further. The vast majority of financial analysts and experts have been calling for a major summer rally, which they claim could push major indices another 10-15% higher from January's high. However, I think this move would have already begun if it was ever going go. Whenever the crowd is calling for the same thing, it is important to examine the other side, because most of the time the market behaves opposite of what the crowd thinks.
Technical indicators are not either. is significantly lower than January's high, while price is only slightly lower. This is a sign of weakness in the market known as divergence. looks to be headed for the south side as a cross reently occurred. It will be essential to keep a close eye on the 50 (yellow line) and 200 (blue line) day moving averages. If price falls below the 200 day moving average, it will be safe to say the bull market is over.
Similar signs can be seen my looking at the charts in 2000 and 2007. The technical indicators pointed to the end of a market cycle, while many financial experts called for higher highs. There is a good chance the market rallies to higher highs and this prediction is completely wrong. However, for the time being, I have good reason to think it will be mostly downhill from here.
Today, President Trump agreed to a new trade deal with Mexico that boosted the entire market significantly. The S&P500 broke out with great strength and the double top was averted. This prior analysis is invalidated. The market will most likely rally to higher highs in the coming weeks.
However, I think it is important to consider both senarios in the bigger picture and read the price action with an open mind.
I agree with your thesis that long-term, S+P 500 could be at a very important DOUBLE TOP RISK.
The 8/10/18 Gap Down from the 2860 price area I believe is much more significant longer term, than the crowd perceives at this point.
a Bearish sentiment is on the rise though as seen in the spike move up in the CBOE Put/ Call Ratio
Thus, the bear trade is becoming crowded, with the financial crisis in Turkey,
and the "contagion" risk of debt risk spreading throughout the financial system.
Much is unknown at this point.
Recent S+P Lows in the 2790 -2800 price area are very important intermediate price support just below.
Much will be revealed, if that test comes to pass in the day's ahead.
See my recent posts for further illumination.