SPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% SPX, 35% Cash.
*S&P September US PMI came in at 52 compared to 51.5 and beating the consensus estimate of 51.8. Though marginal, September PMI increasing as DXY continues to go up and inflation remains high implies that the demand outlook improved slightly since August, which is odd considering that many central banks continue to raise key interest rates around the world. The best explanation thus far is that reopening effects are still at play. Rumors of a Russian nuclear weapons convoy and the world's largest submarine with nuclear weapon capabilities being on the move broke earlier today. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Member Loretta Mester speaks twice on 10/06; September US Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07; FOMC Members Kashkari, Waller and Williams speak on 10/07; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.*
Price is currently continuing to test $3658 minor support for what is now the seventh consecutive session and managed to close back above it in today's session. Volume is High (low) and broke a two day streak of seller dominance by favoring buyers in today's session; Price is currently trading in the fourth largest supply/demand zone. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3728, this is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 38.06 resistance after bouncing off the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~33 (this is bullish), if it breaks above it will likely test the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~41 as resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 32 but is still technically testing 18.22 resistance; the next resistance is at 48. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up at -108 after forming a trough at -110, although it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-83 it would have to break above ~-91 to crossover bullish. ADX is currently beginning to form a soft peak at 31 as Price is seeing buying pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment as it signifies a potential trend change.
If Price is able to close above $3658 minor support for a second consecutive session then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance. However, if Price breaks back down below $3658 minor support, it will likely retest $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3658.
*S&P September US PMI came in at 52 compared to 51.5 and beating the consensus estimate of 51.8. Though marginal, September PMI increasing as DXY continues to go up and inflation remains high implies that the demand outlook improved slightly since August, which is odd considering that many central banks continue to raise key interest rates around the world. The best explanation thus far is that reopening effects are still at play. Rumors of a Russian nuclear weapons convoy and the world's largest submarine with nuclear weapon capabilities being on the move broke earlier today. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Member Loretta Mester speaks twice on 10/06; September US Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07; FOMC Members Kashkari, Waller and Williams speak on 10/07; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 10/12; September US CPI at 830am EST 10/13; September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15.*
Price is currently continuing to test $3658 minor support for what is now the seventh consecutive session and managed to close back above it in today's session. Volume is High (low) and broke a two day streak of seller dominance by favoring buyers in today's session; Price is currently trading in the fourth largest supply/demand zone. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3728, this is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 38.06 resistance after bouncing off the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~33 (this is bullish), if it breaks above it will likely test the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~41 as resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 32 but is still technically testing 18.22 resistance; the next resistance is at 48. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up at -108 after forming a trough at -110, although it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~-83 it would have to break above ~-91 to crossover bullish. ADX is currently beginning to form a soft peak at 31 as Price is seeing buying pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment as it signifies a potential trend change.
If Price is able to close above $3658 minor support for a second consecutive session then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance. However, if Price breaks back down below $3658 minor support, it will likely retest $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3658.