Next 3 days will hurt unless ...

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
I am marking the end of wave 2 with today's high post-Fed. Wave 2 retraced Wave 1's movement near 24% which was greater than the first quartile.

My models are pointing at wave 3 to now last 3-6 days. The historical quartile extensions are listed with waves ending in 533 being yellow and waves ending in 33 being light blue. My bottom for now is likely between 3600-3636. We should take out the June lows in this wave. Still looking at a final bottom in late October below 3400. Wave 3 should do a bulk of this work so going below 3600 may need to occur in order to get below 3400 later next month.

Fed will meet right before election day and will likely attempt to not rock the election boat; they may only raise .50 or .75 at that time. I still project the final bottom around election day and then we fly much higher toward next summer. Another possible catalyst for upward movement could be an end to fighting in Ukraine. Inflation is not going to get better with continued inaction, so a positive black swan is also possible.

All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!

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