SPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% SPX, 85% Cash.
*BOUNCE WATCH. Equities and Futures continue to plummet after a hawkish FOMC meeting has investors bracing for more rate hikes in 2023. Meanwhile, Commodities, Cryptos, DXY, EURUSD, VIX and US Treasuries are either up or flat. Very 2022. Unfortunately, with Putin's latest recruitment efforts and nuclear/chemical warfare posturing it's starting to feel like that time when Russia/Ukraine headlines may another run at being market catalysts. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23; September US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 09/27; August US New-Home Sales at 10am EST 09/27; Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30.*
Price is currently trending down at ~$3767 as it risks breaking down out of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3825 if it's unable to stop going lower in today's session. Volume is currently Moderate and on track to favor sellers for three consecutive sessions if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4025, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI has officially broken below the uptrend line from 01/27/22 and is currently testing the uptrend line from August 2015 at 32 as support, the next support (minor) is at 28.63. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 5 as it approaches max bottom with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -68 as it approaches -76.22 minor support which will likely coincide with a retest of the uptrend line from March 2020 (when the Fed started QE and 0%-0.25% FFR) at ~-78. ADX is currently trending up at 22 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish; should ADX get above 25 and Price continue to go down, this would be very bearish and would increase the likelihood of a retest of $3500 minor support for the first time since November 2020.
If Price is able to resist going any lower in today's session and then follow that up with a Bullish Engulfing Candle in tomorrow's session, then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3825 as resistance. However, if Price continues selling off, it will likely retest $3707 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3825.
*BOUNCE WATCH. Equities and Futures continue to plummet after a hawkish FOMC meeting has investors bracing for more rate hikes in 2023. Meanwhile, Commodities, Cryptos, DXY, EURUSD, VIX and US Treasuries are either up or flat. Very 2022. Unfortunately, with Putin's latest recruitment efforts and nuclear/chemical warfare posturing it's starting to feel like that time when Russia/Ukraine headlines may another run at being market catalysts. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23; September US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 09/27; August US New-Home Sales at 10am EST 09/27; Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30.*
Price is currently trending down at ~$3767 as it risks breaking down out of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3825 if it's unable to stop going lower in today's session. Volume is currently Moderate and on track to favor sellers for three consecutive sessions if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4025, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI has officially broken below the uptrend line from 01/27/22 and is currently testing the uptrend line from August 2015 at 32 as support, the next support (minor) is at 28.63. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 5 as it approaches max bottom with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -68 as it approaches -76.22 minor support which will likely coincide with a retest of the uptrend line from March 2020 (when the Fed started QE and 0%-0.25% FFR) at ~-78. ADX is currently trending up at 22 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish; should ADX get above 25 and Price continue to go down, this would be very bearish and would increase the likelihood of a retest of $3500 minor support for the first time since November 2020.
If Price is able to resist going any lower in today's session and then follow that up with a Bullish Engulfing Candle in tomorrow's session, then it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3825 as resistance. However, if Price continues selling off, it will likely retest $3707 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3825.