DaddySawbucks
Short

SPX: Bearish Butterfly Pattern Completing 3K

TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Details in chart. Huge FOMO rush to pile back in left a monster gap to fill 90 pips below.
Another big gap at 2538.2 never filled. It will fill...

Time cycles projected above, top-to-top time is ~ biweekly, 3-4 up days, 2-3 down days, 3-4 up days, ~ nine sessions.

Trading >2SD above 20DMA, green line. This has been the magnet drawing price reversion to mean. Price will tag 20DMA!
NB: 20DMA rests exactly at the gap from 2864...!

Time cycle and price action suggests completion of the 'W' in Bearish Butterfly on or about 21 May, topping right at 3k.
Rollover to a higher low IMO , target 2538 in early June.

Time on target won't last long IMO , probably rest at higher low, double bottom for a few minutes and start another bullish move. Hope > Greed > Fear atm...!

This is just an idea, not trading advice; trade at your own risk, GLTA!
Trade active: Shorted at 229 QQQ, 296 SPY, 133 IWM in at the moiney June contracts. Nice EOD sale!
Trade active: Shorted puts EOD in bear spreads Tues nite, hedges offset the gap up; adding to position in June puts.

Time cycle suggests Rally peak on 5/21 at 3k.
Trade active: Added to each position at 2980 and went into DIA 245P May 29 contracts, spread short against 22 May 241 strike. GLTA!
Comment: Gaps to fill at 2923, 2864, 2538...
Comment: Looks like 2980 may have been top on 5/20; got 2978 on 5/21... still open for trading ofc, can we see 3k?!
Trade active: Added to bear spreads and rolled short legs down and out to get ready for a long weekend. These 30 Jun Contracts will be pretty cozy held over long weekend; short legs are spread at $5-$6 on weeklies.

Im short QQQ, IWM, SPY. Long legs all went ITM 5/21.
Comment: Intraday wedge broke at 14:36!
Comment: More selling AH... Friday before a long weekend typically time for risk-off, starts to look Bearish IMO...
Trade closed manually: In overnight trade heavy selling AH peaked at 4am; futures pumped then a mini-dump in open. Volatile low volume holiday trade, sqirrley behavior; took risk off and money off the table, small gains in the bear spreads.

Just not behaving as expected and the gap at 2920 closed AH, IMO could be priming for a shot at 3k still...
enjoy the long weekend and stress-free Monday nite watching futures without nail-biting!
Trade active: Going to short on the gap up, R/R favors bears 3:1:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-...

Since 1928, there have been 29 streaks that have stretched to at least 20 days — and 21 of them ended with the S&P 500 falling below the 50-day average, while only eight ended with a push above the 200-day, he noted, making for a roughly 72% probability the index will break down.

But even if the index were to defy the odds and break to the upside, it might not offer investors much comfort. Goepfert noted. When that’s happened in the past, the median return a year later was minus 9.2%, with equities producing a positive return just 38% of the time, he found.
Trade active: We filled the extension on the gap up. Shorted into the gap, all July puts in: IWM @140; SPY @300, QQQ @230, DIA @250, and FB @237.5, it is way overbought IMO.

All positions are bear spreads, shorted the weeklies with 3 days left to expiration range $5-$10 OTM for credits.
GLTA!
Comment: Sharp drop on FB brought position ITM within an hour! This spread is July 237.5 <> 29 May 227.5, a $10 debit spread.
Trade active: Rolled QQQ up to 231 strikes, legged out and in. Station keeping.
Comment: OFC they pumped it, I hedged my shorts on this eventuality! Looks to open near 3030, SPY starting < 303; DIA, IWM slightly higher, opening near Tuesdays' HOTD; another invitation to add shorts and cover hedges IMO.

Oddly the QQQ 231 puts remain ITM premarket, and FB sells!
Trade active: Closed out half positions on the mid-day selloff. IMO a bigger selloff is likely by next week. Short the rallies!
Trade active: Re-entering shorts on QQQ, FB; hedged vs Friday's dailies. FB looks to be headed lower IMO; sold off $10 in Am and retraced half, shorting again around $227.
Trade active: Odd divergence suggests MMs trading NQ for DJI, closed the DIA position for small gain from hedges. Probably a bit too soon to go hog wild on shorts IMO, but who knows? I am short QQQ, IWM, SPY, FB atm.

Average 68 days in bear market rally, now in day 64, starts to look real squirrley...!
Comment: EOD short covering rally at 2PM, this is the time of day when brokers force liquidations, it's a technical rally from forced buys to cover. Look to add shorts EOD IMO.

Apparently most of participation now is retail, smart money is sidelined. Typical before a break.
Trade active: See my Nenstar related post for current updates. This will sell IMO. Target: 2864 close the gap. Secondary target: 2538 at lower gap. Might not get there until later this year...
Trade active: Stalled at the 0.786 Fibo. See my Nenstar idea. I'm short!
Comment: Red rocket doji. Confirmation Friday? Stay tuned!
Trade closed manually: Invalidated by ADP report current events, sorry! Closed out all positions.

Comments

Not to nitpick but that is not a butterfly, technically speaking. C has to be higher than A for butterfly. Can you point to literature where this is a valid butterfly? Thanks.
+3 Reply
@frodo75, Its either a Gartley. a Bat or a Butterfly, or perhaps just a figment of my fevered imagination, but it sells regardless!
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frodo75 DaddySawbucks
@DaddySawbucks, I looked for you. It is a bearish nenstar. Will need to climb up to 300 SPY to complete.
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@frodo75, NIce, tyvm!! Nenstar is a new pattern for me; It meets Shark criteria, CD may be 113% - 162% of XA, e.g.;
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/10747-new-patterns-for-harmonic-traders/

When CD terminates below X, it's a Cypher pattern; these are all volatile, full of traps for bulls and bears; the bear rallies are fierce!
Saw that last week with DJI up 900, SPX gain 90 pips with huge opening gap, bear killer!!

Thanks for the look! Here's skinny on nenstars:
http://forex-trading.tv/blog/harmonic_patterns/2019-04-26-12
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You know, it looks like it skipped your drop but you pretty much nailed the 3200.

The faster the rise, the harder the fall!
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RIP DaddySawbucks... 6/5/2020.

He was a devoted bear but couldn't take the heat so had to GTFO of the kitchen.

I'll buy you a beer with my mid-June TVIX profits!
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Rolled QQQ up to 231 strikes, legged out and in. Station keeping.

https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&%3Bq=QQQ&%3Bsourceid=opera&%3Bie=UTF-8&%3Boe=UTF-8

This is a call etf...QQQ NASDAQ CALL????????
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aox8zs aox8zs
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aox8zs aox8zs
Rolled QQQ up to 231 strikes, legged out and in. Station keeping.

PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1
NASDAQ: QQQ

This is a call etf...QQQ NASDAQ CALL????????
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@aox8zs, No bro, read up, I am in puts on QQQ; strike price was 230, I realized nice intraday gain on those, flipped em and legged back into the July 231 strikes for same price on midday lift! Feeling pretty clever and rather pleased with meself!! Holding puts on ETFs: SPY @ 300, QQQ @ 231, DIA @ 250, IWM @ 140, all went Into the Money EOD. Side play with FB June puts, now in the 235s, I started in the 237.5s and scalped 2 pips off those, rolled into the June 235 puts realizing and locking in gains on the higher strikes.
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