exlux99

Weekly Prediction 9-13 May SPX/ES Iron Condor

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
SPX
9 - 13 May
The weekly VIX -> Volatility Index for S&P 500 index
VIX = 30.2
In this we have to standard it for weekly session
30.2 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 4.19%
My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week
E Volatility = 31.69 / sqrt(52) = 4.39%

With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX , there were a 89% chance that the market
stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol

So for next week this range for us is going to be
TOP - 4305
BOT - 3942

Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading:
4300Call Sell - 4325Call Buy
3950Put sell - 3925 Put buy
This is giving us at the current moment a 0.29 expectancy
So taking into account from 1166 weekly candles, that 89% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel,
Our profit margin would be 89% * 0.29 - 11%*1 = 14.81 ROI after 100 trades


Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.