SPX Daily TA Cautiously Bearish

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
SPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash.

*BOUNCE WATCH. All eyes are on the big FOMC statement at 2pm on 09/21. The big volatility and volume surge today was largely due to a whopping $3.2t OpEx (options expiration). The UofM Consumer Sentiment Index for September came in at 59.5 compared to 58.2 in August, reflecting a slightly more optimistic consumer heading into Q4. Equities, Cryptos, Futures, US 10Y Treasury, DXY and Agriculture Commodities are all down or flat while VIX, 30Y Treasury, EURUSD, Precious Metals and Oil are up. Key Upcoming Dates: US August Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 09/20; 13th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 09/20; FOMC meeting 09/20-09/21 (Statement Released at 2pm EST on 09/21); S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 09/23.*

Price finished the day at $3873 after briefly testing the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 (~$3850) as support. Volume is High (high) was the highest since 06/17/22 due to a massive OpEx and favored sellers for a second consecutive session today. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4100, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down below the uptrend line from 01/27/22 at ~40 and testing 38 support with no signs of trough formation; the next support is at the uptrend line from August 2015 (~32). Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 26, the next support is at 18.32. MACD is currently testing -43.84 support with no signs of trough formation after a rejected bullish crossover attempt at the weak uptrend line from March 2020 (-22) as support; if -43.84 support doesn't hold then the next support is the strong uptrend line from March 2020 at -76.22 minor support. ADX is trending up slightly at 20 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bearish at the moment.

If Price is able to bounce here then the next likely target is a retest of $3938 minor resistance. However, if Price continues to fall here, it will likely formally retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3850 as support before potentially retesting $3706 minor support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.