TradingShot

Can the market rise more during Biden's Presidency than Trump's?

Long
TVC:SPX   S&P 500 Index
This is a simple chart showing the performance of the S&P500 under each President since the Ford administration is 1974.

As you see contrary to popular belief, the stock market in modern times has done (much) better under a Democrat President. Bill Clinton has had the strongest performance with more than +200% in gains from the day he went into the office till the day he left, while George W. Bush the worst and the only negative with -34% in losses.

Also this pattern shows that after every Republican Presidency, the Democrat administration that follows performs (much) better. Carter almost tripled Ford's performance, Clinton more than tripled George H. W. Bush's score. Needless to say what Obama did to George W. Bush's disappointing Presidency.

So in my opinion Wall Street shouldn't be seeing Trump's defeat as a setback, but as the start of a Presidency of more stock market gains than Trump's. History has a tendency to repeat itself. Wouldn't you agree? Let me know in the comments section!

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Comments

Absolute BS.
First, because during the clinton presidency, markets had a boom not due to policies, but because exploded the dot-com era, specifically, with mickey mouse as president, would have happened the same, and when a bubble burst, markets contract, so there is no correlation (in this specific case) between poor market performances and presidency in the bush era.
Second, during the obama presidency, growth was just an inevitable recovery from the depth of recession (so you can easily slash it in half), and i can ensure you, as an economist and investor, in the 2006-2013 period, there was absolutely no good fiscal policy put in place (they were wrong, and bad), specifically, growth has been more a matter of strenght of the american economic machine.
Third, during the trump presidency, there was not massive growth for a simple reason, this was the short-term price to pay in order to free the US economic machine from chinese dependence, that in long term planning would have made sense, but to become effective necessitate consistency, and now will be interrupted.. so let's see; also during the covid-19 crisis there would have not been any better management of fiscal and monetary policies (they was the best possible, and the best ever seen).
Fourth, for biden supporters: first, remember that sock prices thus the markets, are strongly correlated with companies fair valuation, and if at some point in time soon somebody would increase corporate taxation, fair value of companies will drop, and prices with them; second, as taxation rises companies will leave US territory, leading to unemployment, leading to a GDP contraction; third, military spending is directly correlated to GDP, so while china keeps growing fast the GDP and military, USA will get slow down, and this will lead to change in the balance of power in the long term.
Opinions and choices are diverse, but when you guys open the mouth, make sure to have the knowledge and skills to fairly analyze the situation, economy is correlated to politics, but whether you like or dislike a guy, does not make it good or bad for the economy, and looking at a graph... will not give you any insight about the management of the economy, starting from the fact that you should read it properly first.
And one thing, so is clear, no investor like joe biden.
+7 Reply
Comment removed.
GloryGate MrBTC69
@MrBTC69, Mind your language ! Mr ! Here is intl.public community !
Reply
@AlexFly, You were "an economist and investor, in the 2006-2013 period" but in the 2020s period you come to TradingView to start a counter argument with "Absolute BS"? Ok, no further comments on that, I will leave it to the discretion of TradingView's community.
+2 Reply
AlexFly TradingShot
@TradingShot, I use tradingview for purposes non-cummunity related, specifically because sometimes, people involved in my business, need graphical content to understand situations; i still am an investor and analyst; just you know, even though i asked tradingview several times to make optional, the possibility to see or hide "Ideas", unfortunately the times in which i use Tradingview, i can't avoid to see unuseful ideas on my homepage, ad sometime i just can't avoid to reply, when they are absurd BS on matters i know well.
Good luck.
+1 Reply
AlexFly TradingShot
@TradingShot, Oh one last thing, the fact that you find outrageous or weird, that an investor starts a conversation with "Absolute BS", makes me think you never had contact with financial markets world, neither investors.
Reply
@AlexFly, The fact that you had to engage me on the BS issue simply shows again how desperate you are to convince the TradingView audience that you've been "an economist and investor, in the 2006-2013 period". No last things for me. That is my final waste of precious time on you.
Reply
Trade_and_gain TradingShot
@TradingShot, You should try to start a dialogue, but instead you attacked @AlexFly for bringing up many very valid points.

Biden will unleash socialism, thus investors are not going to favor him over Trump.
It takes an entire second of thoughtful and insightful consideration to realize that basic bottom line fact.

What I do see in your replies is a passive-aggressive stance along venomous language because you're definitely against Trump - these things are very clear.

With that said I have to say that your bogus claims are based on false date and you're not willing to see any conversation and instead you are triggered like some basic leftist.

You should work on your attitude.

Lastly you take reports from CNN at face value and ignore the legal process to stop Biden that just begun, so you're extremely short sighted.

Wow your post now seems empty.
+1 Reply
tyf71802 TradingShot
@TradingShot, Bro anybody can make stock prices soar when they are printing money and ballooning the economy. Eventually the bubble pops. Sooner or later you gotta pay the piper though. The only difference is it always gets done under a republican and then they are blamed for the market correction. Lol
+1 Reply
sdembis AlexFly
@AlexFly, Given that more money was contributed in large margin by Wall Street firms to Biden's campaign than that to Trump's, I suspect that:
1) You were not an economist for any recognized Wall Street firm.
2) Given that Wall Street economists are some of the most highly paid and have de facto contributed to Biden's campaign, they would most likely think you're full of it.
3) Russian economists, however, might agree with you as their country seems to have supported Trump over Biden.

If you want to toot your horn: I worked professionally as a top producing advisor for a recognized top money center bank brokerage arm and have a CFA attached to my name as well as having worked as a Strategist for a Macro Hedge Fund with a career spanning from 1983 - something we all recognized was the market was more likely to outperform under a Democratic President ...
+1 Reply
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