S&P500 targeting 4400 on this wave. Conditions for long-term.

The S&P500 index (SPX) turned the price action since the start of 2022 into a Channel Down pattern. Monday's low came very close to the 1W MA100 (red trend-line), which is a level intact since May 18 2020. A weekly (1W) candle close below it, will most likely kick-start a new round of aggressive selling.

As long as it holds though, it is more likely to see the index rebound to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is now a little over 4400. That would be within the Lower Highs zone of the Channel Down. That's the medium-term projection at least.

On the long-term though, based on a distant fractal of similar price action from June 2015 to January 2016, we can only expect an extended rise, if the 4640 High (currently the Resistance) breaks. That is at least what happened in June 07 2016, where after an initial pull-back, the long-term bullish trend was resumed. Notice also the similarities on the 1D RSI sequences.


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