SPY - Bullish or Bearish? + A Friendly Challenge
Went back to the drawing boards and came across another individual's post which was my original inspiration for charting it out myself. I want to give him his rightful credit for this and plan on including him on this post. @Markrivest
However, when I began to chart it out on the 4hr (I have a few different ideas on different timeframes and my 4hr wasn't quite right so wanted to replace it / it's an intermediate term pattern so requires a 4hr timeframe) I couldn't help but to take another stance than our original author. So came the idea of a friendly challenge. I believe, in terms of relative popularity @Markrivest and I are both in a position where we have nothing to lose and at the same time wouldn't mind showing off to the handful of people that do like our stuff. He also seems like the type of individual who actually enjoys hearing differing opinions and I hope this finds him well.
Okay, so my rationale:
1. The way I know patterns, as a rule of thumb, is the DIRECTION that price enters the pattern is the DIRECTION that price will move out of the pattern
- I see the top resistance THICK BLUE line had price fall into it.
2. Elliot Wave: Also, the way I learned it was that the count begins after the impulse wave's corrective wave. Given that we didn't make a new high, (which is the reason for the pattern in the first place) where I have A is the correct sequence. That's why the tool in tradingview has that extra first click before letters print. Also, the lows from A-C don't align with the count from C-E, which hurts the probability it would be included in the sequence.
- Sidenote: Your put/call indicator is a fantastic display of why it pays to keep an eye on that ratio. Very good stuff. And the sequence works if you're going buy the put/call ratio over price, which I do all the time with other indicators.
3. My MACD has a long term (since 2016) trend line along the lows that price hasn't gotten over which has acted as resistance. This indicator alone makes me skeptical of a bullish breakout because the more times resistance holds, the stronger it gets in nature.
4. My RSI had price breaking down from it's trendline support, it's only recently popped back into the original support/resistance. This breakdown is reason for concern about the breadth of the market - aka more sellers than buyers. I believe I've seen this before but where the RSI Indicator's overthrow is bearish, price then has an overthrow that's bullish on the otherside.
5. This leads me to my last observation, I have a significant trendline drawn over price with a THIN BLACK line that goes back to 2016 again. This would be a decent area (that's acted as previous resistance) to reject price upon an overthrow of the THICK BLUE resistance line.
Long story short:
You have this most recent bottom as E-Support before the move up, and I have this most recent bottom as D - Last leg before the move down.
Therefore I challenge you to see whose technicals are correct.
-RH
However, when I began to chart it out on the 4hr (I have a few different ideas on different timeframes and my 4hr wasn't quite right so wanted to replace it / it's an intermediate term pattern so requires a 4hr timeframe) I couldn't help but to take another stance than our original author. So came the idea of a friendly challenge. I believe, in terms of relative popularity @Markrivest and I are both in a position where we have nothing to lose and at the same time wouldn't mind showing off to the handful of people that do like our stuff. He also seems like the type of individual who actually enjoys hearing differing opinions and I hope this finds him well.
Okay, so my rationale:
1. The way I know patterns, as a rule of thumb, is the DIRECTION that price enters the pattern is the DIRECTION that price will move out of the pattern
- I see the top resistance THICK BLUE line had price fall into it.
2. Elliot Wave: Also, the way I learned it was that the count begins after the impulse wave's corrective wave. Given that we didn't make a new high, (which is the reason for the pattern in the first place) where I have A is the correct sequence. That's why the tool in tradingview has that extra first click before letters print. Also, the lows from A-C don't align with the count from C-E, which hurts the probability it would be included in the sequence.
- Sidenote: Your put/call indicator is a fantastic display of why it pays to keep an eye on that ratio. Very good stuff. And the sequence works if you're going buy the put/call ratio over price, which I do all the time with other indicators.
3. My MACD has a long term (since 2016) trend line along the lows that price hasn't gotten over which has acted as resistance. This indicator alone makes me skeptical of a bullish breakout because the more times resistance holds, the stronger it gets in nature.
4. My RSI had price breaking down from it's trendline support, it's only recently popped back into the original support/resistance. This breakdown is reason for concern about the breadth of the market - aka more sellers than buyers. I believe I've seen this before but where the RSI Indicator's overthrow is bearish, price then has an overthrow that's bullish on the otherside.
5. This leads me to my last observation, I have a significant trendline drawn over price with a THIN BLACK line that goes back to 2016 again. This would be a decent area (that's acted as previous resistance) to reject price upon an overthrow of the THICK BLUE resistance line.
Long story short:
You have this most recent bottom as E-Support before the move up, and I have this most recent bottom as D - Last leg before the move down.
Therefore I challenge you to see whose technicals are correct.
-RH
Comment:
Comment:
Make or Break time
Comment:
I'm getting close to admitting defeat and awarding @Markrivest as the victor of this challenge.
I'm getting close to admitting defeat and awarding @Markrivest as the victor of this challenge.