$TLT: Make bonds great again?
I'm concerned of broad risk off possibilities between now and EOY, as potential tax increases might impact the equity markets, going into effect from 2022 onwards...I was already concerned due to long term technical charts suggesting this year we would likely get the end of the bullish trend we had in equities since the 2009 bottom.
This week's turn of events has increased my fear levels substantially. I'm already long bonds and commodities via option positions as a hedge for my equities portfolio, but I think it is time to stay alert and not be inflexible and attempt to bag hodl ANYTHING forever.
There's a long list of bearish factors at play now, and it keeps getting worse the further we go into 2021, but stock market indices have gone vertical since last year so far.
I will try to time the top in individual stocks I hold, and trade with a mid to short term focus, so as not to take on a big drawdown by the time I can confirm a long term top in equities is happening. At some point this year, indices will stop going up, form a daily down trend and drop some 10-30%, then perhaps rebound and form a multi month or multi week consolidation before falling further, that will be the beginning of the end, and I don't want to react too late.
Biden is doing all he can to derail the long term bullish trend in US equities here. It's a sight to behold. Props to him, if that was his goal.
The last time we had yearly trends expiring in equities it was the year 2000, and a decade long sideways/bear market ensued where hodlers didn't have an easy time surviving.
You know what asset class did well during the crashes? Cash and cash alternatives...ergo, bonds.
Just some food for thought.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
This week's turn of events has increased my fear levels substantially. I'm already long bonds and commodities via option positions as a hedge for my equities portfolio, but I think it is time to stay alert and not be inflexible and attempt to bag hodl ANYTHING forever.
There's a long list of bearish factors at play now, and it keeps getting worse the further we go into 2021, but stock market indices have gone vertical since last year so far.
I will try to time the top in individual stocks I hold, and trade with a mid to short term focus, so as not to take on a big drawdown by the time I can confirm a long term top in equities is happening. At some point this year, indices will stop going up, form a daily down trend and drop some 10-30%, then perhaps rebound and form a multi month or multi week consolidation before falling further, that will be the beginning of the end, and I don't want to react too late.
Biden is doing all he can to derail the long term bullish trend in US equities here. It's a sight to behold. Props to him, if that was his goal.
The last time we had yearly trends expiring in equities it was the year 2000, and a decade long sideways/bear market ensued where hodlers didn't have an easy time surviving.
You know what asset class did well during the crashes? Cash and cash alternatives...ergo, bonds.
Just some food for thought.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Trade closed manually:
This setup failed, now 5-10y bonds are acting weak, bond yields look poised to rally again...There's big potential a rebound in lean hogs, corn, lumber, crypto, value names...
Trade closed: stop reached:
The signal here failed for now, seems we have another bout of strength in equities for now.
Comment:
Comment:
Yield curve suggests the market expects reflation...
Comment:
I'm long energy and financials, holding some long term winners too like $TSLA, but right now the portfolio will likely be carried by value/energy/financial names I hold.
Read my remarks in this Twitter thread: twitter.com/iva...208011995557889?s=20
Also check this out: twitter.com/psk...204740337774592?s=20
We will have to watch the developments surrounding the infrastructure plan and imbued tax law changes, that might change the incentives that make the current money flow logical...