Credit - TLT Long 2023

Idea for TLT:
- According to consumer expectations, US is already in a recession. Dow hit ATH through this, so a headfake is due.
- We have been patient, but Treasury auction today is a good turning point.
- Long Jan 20, 2023 145C for 8.60 debit

GLHF
- DPT

Comment:

This may well be the last auction before cutbacks, and signal a top in supply. Advantageous to grab them now while nobody wants them. Simple supply and demand!

Comment:

US10Y has topped at 1.666:

Comment:

Short interest up 63% in 2 months, bond bears doubling down in their belief in the unreal (inflation), widow maker short squeeze here.

Comment:

B-but muh i-inflation!

Comment:

There is no doubt that those who are invested in the unreal (inflation) will be viciously squeezed:

Comment:

Commercials are the most long UST in 3 years, while large speculators are equally short. Bonds are about to have an ungodly short squeeze. Goodbye inflation narrative.

Comment:

Seems I am getting quite good at catching bottom ticks!

Trade closed manually:

Closed for 10.70 debit (+24.4% gain), Will look to re-enter but I am afraid of the risk parity event which is drawing near