Is TLT saying we are about to have a Vix explosion?
I have been following many charts and patterns for quite some time. and The set up for an entire market melt down is almost too perfect right now. and I will go through the list of events that have taken place:
First lets start with Gold. Gold had rallied on the back of lower yields for the better part of 2 months all to just get shot down during the FOMC meeting just a few weeks ago when the dollar shot up. (gold tends to lead the market sells offs by about 2-3 weeks) Mind you all of this has happened as yields have gone lower and lower. (totally not what you would expect from an "inflationary environment") gold respects real rates however if deflation was about to start happening, then this is the exact precursor you would expect. This is why I believe that if I am wrong about the vix explosion gold is going to be the best buy of the quarter.
Then lets move to the DJT (dow jones transports) I explained this in my prior IYT analysis which can be found here:
The transports just like gold and precious metals are generally the first assets to take a hit give or take about 2-3 weeks before general market correction.
and that leads me to my last point. TLT, oh tlt you dirty whore you. (I am currently long tlt fyi) The set up in the line chart of tlt is identical to the pre-covid crash as you can see in this chart.
But wait there's more.. Why has DXY been rallying along with TLT that does not happen very often. Some times it happens here and there But it does not happen for stretch of 2 weeks. All I am saying is stay hedged people. this is a very very risky set up.
First lets start with Gold. Gold had rallied on the back of lower yields for the better part of 2 months all to just get shot down during the FOMC meeting just a few weeks ago when the dollar shot up. (gold tends to lead the market sells offs by about 2-3 weeks) Mind you all of this has happened as yields have gone lower and lower. (totally not what you would expect from an "inflationary environment") gold respects real rates however if deflation was about to start happening, then this is the exact precursor you would expect. This is why I believe that if I am wrong about the vix explosion gold is going to be the best buy of the quarter.
Then lets move to the DJT (dow jones transports) I explained this in my prior IYT analysis which can be found here:
and that leads me to my last point. TLT, oh tlt you dirty whore you. (I am currently long tlt fyi) The set up in the line chart of tlt is identical to the pre-covid crash as you can see in this chart.
But wait there's more.. Why has DXY been rallying along with TLT that does not happen very often. Some times it happens here and there But it does not happen for stretch of 2 weeks. All I am saying is stay hedged people. this is a very very risky set up.