The Anatomy of the TLT; Cycle analysis by Thestructured

NASDAQ:TLT   Ishares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
This is my dissection of the TLT chart into the classic stages of a bubble, with time cycles. Each stage is present and the TLT appears to be in a bottoming process. I'm a big fan of using Fib channels combined with time cycles, because with fib channels, you are looking for a certain line to get hit, wherever that may be, as opposed to traditional fib retracements and extensions where you are looking for exact numbers. I find that with regular fibs, price often overshoots or undershoots them, whereas using a channel, it is more so a time based touch of a line, which si why it works so well with time cycles.

Last year I had used these fib channels and cycles to find the current bottom on the TLT, which was an exact touch of the 161.8, right at a (red) time cycle trough region, and also at a strong volume profile node.
There are larger, converging cycle troughs shown which should be somewhere in the September area of 2023. It is unclear at this time whether that region will be a higher low, or 'the bottom' (assuming that the 92 area wasn't already 'the' bottom, which it might have been.

In any case, I am planning on investing this fall in that major trough zone, regardless of if price is higher or lower than it is now, when that timing region comes.

Disclaimer: These charts and posts are a reflection of my own analysis and opinions based on my own analysis. I could be wrong, nothing is guaranteed, and my posts are for educational purposes only, as they are my own pure speculation, and should not be taken as investment advice of any kind. Do you own DD!


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