THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW. NATTY GOES CRAZY
Natty is a slang term for 'natural gas' or natural gas futures. Natural gas is among the most-volatile commodities, especially in contracts for prompt delivery.
A big reason why is the demand for natural gas varies considerably based on the weather as it's primarily a heating fuel; though it's increasingly used in electricity production and that can also make it subject to swings on hot summer weather due to air conditioning demand. Increasingly, LNG demand also dictates the price of natural gas.
Forecasters from Atmospheric G2 said last Thursday that above-average temperatures are expected for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. from Feb. 6 to 10.
Natural gas prices are also under pressure after the Freeport LNG natural gas export terminal in Texas announced in January, 2024 that it would close one of its three production units for a month for repairs after extreme cold in Texas damaged equipment. The closure of one of the power units will limit the export of natural gas from the United States and increase its supply.
Front
NGH2024
Natural Gas futures contract recently fell to all-time low, below $1.900 mark.
An unusually mild winter reduced demand for natural gas and kept U.S. inventories high.
Forecasters at Maxar Technologies said last Wednesday that weather is forecast to become warmer over the next two weeks from the Rockies to the Midwest.
According to BNEF, Lower 48 States Dry Natural Gas production on Wednesday amounted to 104.2 bcf per day (+4.2% y/y). Demand for Lower 48 States Dry Natural Gas was 93.1 bcfas of Wednesday, according to BNEF. (+8.9% y/y), and net LNG flows to US LNG export terminals declined to 13.5 bcf as of Wednesday. (-4.2% by weight).
Reduced U.S. electricity production will negatively impact demand for natural gas from utility
providers.
The Edison Electrical Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity production fell -8.1% year-over-year for the week ending Feb. 3, and total electricity production in the US for the 52-week period ending February 3 fell by -0.4%.
The US Climate Prediction Center said there is a more than 55% chance that current El Niño weather conditions will remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere through March, keeping temperatures above average and putting pressure on natural gas prices.
AccuWeather predicts also El Niño will limit snowfall in Canada this season and also cause above-normal temperatures in North America.
Gas storage facilities in Europe were 71% full as of January 29, above the five-year seasonal average of 58 percent for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported a week ago on Friday that the number of active U.S. natural gas drilling rigs fell by -1 rig to 119 rigs for the week ended Jan. 26, just above the two-year low of 113 rigs recorded on Sept. 8.
Rising to a 4.5-year high of 166 rigs in September 2022 from the pandemic-era low of 68 rigs recorded in July 2020 (data dating back to 1987), rigs number decreases again, since Q4'22.
Recent EIA report showed in full accordance with expectations, a decrease in reserves of -75 bcf that is much less than the 5-year average for this time of year of -193 bcf.
The main technical chart is for United States Natural Gas Fund LP
UNG
ETF that offers straightforward exposure to front-month natural gas futures
Basically this graph clear illustrates that disinflation era is still exists, as bearish sentiment is still prevails in the market since the Q4'022, after a key 5yrs SMA breakthrough.
Perhaps this is the end, and market capitulation is almost right there, as it typically happens each time in long-term downward market trends.
A big reason why is the demand for natural gas varies considerably based on the weather as it's primarily a heating fuel; though it's increasingly used in electricity production and that can also make it subject to swings on hot summer weather due to air conditioning demand. Increasingly, LNG demand also dictates the price of natural gas.
Forecasters from Atmospheric G2 said last Thursday that above-average temperatures are expected for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. from Feb. 6 to 10.
Natural gas prices are also under pressure after the Freeport LNG natural gas export terminal in Texas announced in January, 2024 that it would close one of its three production units for a month for repairs after extreme cold in Texas damaged equipment. The closure of one of the power units will limit the export of natural gas from the United States and increase its supply.
Front
NGH2024
Natural Gas futures contract recently fell to all-time low, below $1.900 mark. An unusually mild winter reduced demand for natural gas and kept U.S. inventories high.
Forecasters at Maxar Technologies said last Wednesday that weather is forecast to become warmer over the next two weeks from the Rockies to the Midwest.
According to BNEF, Lower 48 States Dry Natural Gas production on Wednesday amounted to 104.2 bcf per day (+4.2% y/y). Demand for Lower 48 States Dry Natural Gas was 93.1 bcfas of Wednesday, according to BNEF. (+8.9% y/y), and net LNG flows to US LNG export terminals declined to 13.5 bcf as of Wednesday. (-4.2% by weight).
Reduced U.S. electricity production will negatively impact demand for natural gas from utility
providers.
The Edison Electrical Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity production fell -8.1% year-over-year for the week ending Feb. 3, and total electricity production in the US for the 52-week period ending February 3 fell by -0.4%.
The US Climate Prediction Center said there is a more than 55% chance that current El Niño weather conditions will remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere through March, keeping temperatures above average and putting pressure on natural gas prices.
AccuWeather predicts also El Niño will limit snowfall in Canada this season and also cause above-normal temperatures in North America.
Gas storage facilities in Europe were 71% full as of January 29, above the five-year seasonal average of 58 percent for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported a week ago on Friday that the number of active U.S. natural gas drilling rigs fell by -1 rig to 119 rigs for the week ended Jan. 26, just above the two-year low of 113 rigs recorded on Sept. 8.
Rising to a 4.5-year high of 166 rigs in September 2022 from the pandemic-era low of 68 rigs recorded in July 2020 (data dating back to 1987), rigs number decreases again, since Q4'22.
Recent EIA report showed in full accordance with expectations, a decrease in reserves of -75 bcf that is much less than the 5-year average for this time of year of -193 bcf.
The main technical chart is for United States Natural Gas Fund LP
UNG
ETF that offers straightforward exposure to front-month natural gas futures Basically this graph clear illustrates that disinflation era is still exists, as bearish sentiment is still prevails in the market since the Q4'022, after a key 5yrs SMA breakthrough.
Perhaps this is the end, and market capitulation is almost right there, as it typically happens each time in long-term downward market trends.
Comment:
Feb 12, 2024
Natty prices falling. Natty prices falling.
Da-da, da-da.. Du-du, du-du... 😄
Natty prices falling. Natty prices falling.
Da-da, da-da.. Du-du, du-du... 😄
Trade active:
Feb 14, 2024
👉 Natural gas prices have dropped significantly in Europe. Futures with the nearest delivery in March 2024 have decreased 10-fold since July 2022 - from 25 to 2.50 euro cents per 1 kilowatt-hour.
👉 The entire inflationary flywheel, launched when Democrats and Mr Biden came to power in the United States in January 2021, is clucking and finally collapsing.
// paka-paka 🍳
👉 Natural gas prices have dropped significantly in Europe. Futures with the nearest delivery in March 2024 have decreased 10-fold since July 2022 - from 25 to 2.50 euro cents per 1 kilowatt-hour.
👉 The entire inflationary flywheel, launched when Democrats and Mr Biden came to power in the United States in January 2021, is clucking and finally collapsing.
// paka-paka 🍳
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