NASDAQ One last low is possible before new ATH

Nasdaq has been particularly week this month as yesterday's rejection saw the price back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again and near the December 03 low. We do remain inside a year-long Channel Up but the very structure of this pattern allows for one final Lower Low before making a bottom.

As you see on the chart, every time NDX broke the last Low of the previous uptrend (bold black line), the price dropped either around -8.50% or -12.00%, while the RSI bottomed within the 35.000 - 30.000 Support Zone . Neither of that has happened yet and technically when either of those happens first, then that would be a good estimate for a bottom on Nasdaq.

A -8.50% pull-back from the top would place the price at around 15,350 while a -12.00% at around 14,750. The latter however would mean a break below both the Channel Up and the Higher Lows trend-line that is holding since November 02 2020, while at the same time making a direct hit on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Thus I consider it far less likely. For a long-term trader, even the fact that we are currently around the 1D MA50, translates into a good buy opportunity.

Our Target on a 1.5 - 2.0 months horizon is 17600 which is slightly below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension , a standard target for NDX after such a bottom.


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